Kev’s Gambling Corner: Week of 10/1/2019
Gambling Kev breaks down this week’s betting action in his very first Gambling Corner article for On Tap Sports Net.
This column is meant to provide my insight on football games while providing information to make your own decision. If you follow me and I lose, you’re an idiot for following me. If you fade me and I hit, you’re an idiot for fading me. That being said, blindly follow me and let’s go win some bets.
I’m giving you lines as I write this. Get over it.
Never watch an under. Watching an under is like eating healthy. Sure, you’re happy in the end, but at what cost? You eventually want to rip your eyes out after rooting for the 15th punt. Give me 18 McDoubles and an over of 87.5.
I’m going to call you an idiot a lot during these articles. Bear with me as I’m already aggressively stressed out over the outcome of these picks. I’m a hot mess. Enjoy!
Jacksonville +3.5 @ Carolina
Minshew magic. Both of these teams have found new life with surprising and stout defenses. Minshew has clawed back from what should be two wins (cc: Leonard Fournette forgetting to extend the football). He also blew out Tennessee. This man can do it all, and I’m riding the mustache until it falls off.
Pick: Jags +3.5
Buffalo @ Tennessee O/U 38.5
DO NOT WATCH THIS GAME. I REPEAT, DO NOT WATCH THIS GAME.
You will truly hate yourself for watching this 6-3 shootout, but the under is the play here. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the NFL in pace of play. On the Tennessee side, Marcus Mariota hasn’t turned the ball over. On the Buffalo side, they have a backup QB starting, which means they’re going to play conservatively. Buffalo’s defense is fourth in defensive Defensive Adjusted Value over Average (DVOA) and held the Patriots to 16 points, especially in a game where Buffalo’s offense had four turnovers. Will I watch this game? Absolutely not. Will I stare anxiously at the gamecast on my phone? Yes, I’m a degenerate.
Pick: Under 38.5
Chicago Bears Pick of the Week:
Chicago Bears -5 @ Oakland Raiders (London Game)
Khalil Mack stat line: 15 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, 1 interception, 2 TDs.
Pick: Bears -5
Michigan State +20 @ Ohio State
I really love that people think Nebraska (the recipient of a 48-7 beatdown on home turf against Ohio State last week) is good this year. They were darlings coming into the season now that Scott Frost is past the first-year hiccups. I know better than anyone, it takes more than a year to get a new system implemented (shout out Kansas, football school through and through). Michigan State is not Nebraska. 20 is simply too many points here. Both Michigan State and Ohio State have stout defenses. Mark Dantonio knows how to control this type of game. They’ll control the game by running the ball and keeping their defense off the field. MSU is converting third downs at 45% on the season, which is 35th in the FBS. This will be key to them keeping the ball out of Justin Field’s hands. If they’re able to convert a few key third downs, that should pump the defense up and hopefully result in a few stops on the other side of the ball. Do I think MSU is going to win? No. Do I think it’ll be close? Yes.
Pick: Michigan State +20
Tulsa +13 @ SMU
I’m betting on the machine:
The big news out of SMU Football this year is that they are utilizing “The Seeker.” This allows receivers to run routes all day, every day without destroying the quarterback’s arm. Tulsa has a decent passing defense through four games, but none of them were against “The Seeker.” SMU is coming off of back-to-back road wins., and their passing offense is ranked 30th in the FBS. SMU is ranked for the first time since 1986. With Tulsa at home this Saturday, they plan on keeping it that way.
Pick: SMU -13
Blindly Follow Me Because You’re a Degenerate Pick:
University of Illinois +14 @ Minnesota
It’s Lovie’s Big Ten, we’re all just living in it.
Pick: Illini +14
That’s all for this week folks, good luck!
Featured Photo: Getty Images