Kev’s Gambling Corner: Week of 10/29/2019
Kevin loves almost every over in college football this week as he breaks down his picks for the upcoming weekend of action.
Bad Beat of the week:
At what point will the refs learn to just let the play go? This would have made me 4-2. That’s above average. I would have put so much more effort into the intro! Speaking of fumbles on field goals, Kansas is officially a football school.
A few things to note:
- I’ve never looked at a college football slate and liked more overs. Points are better than no points. The people want overs, I’ll give the people overs.
- For those keeping track at home, I’m 10-14 on the year: 4-7 in the NFL, and 5-7 in college, 1-0 football (of the European variety). Am I purposely not playing a Premier League game this week to stay above .500 in something? Yes.
- Similar to every week, I’m aggressively stressed out over the outcome of these picks. I’m currently watching game seven with a large position on the Astros and an IV of Busch Light in my arm. When this article is only half-finished come Thursday, you’ll know why. Enjoy!
Tennessee Titans -3.5 @ Carolina Panthers
This is a prime example of “what have you done for me lately” game line. The Panthers got absolutely demolished by the 49ers, who could be the best team in the NFL. On the other side, the Titans won a game by one score in which a fumble TD was denied (see above) and they played bad Jameis Winston (four turnovers). The week prior, the Titans won because the Chargers decided they didn’t want to. The Panthers are 5-1 with Kyle Allen at QB and have played the fifth-toughest schedule in the NFL to date. The Titans have played the 25th-toughest. I’m making this play purely on the better team. The Titans aren’t going to luck into three wins in a row. The Panthers and Kyle Allen should have plenty of motivation coming off last game. Oh yeah, they also have Christian McCaffrey.
Pick: Carolina -3.5
Chicago Bears Pick of the Week:
I repeat, this team stinks. Fellow On Tap Sports Net contributor Patrick Comiskey covered everything I was feeling postgame. This isn’t solely Mitchell Trubisky’s fault anymore, Matt Nagy is an offensive “mastermind” that couldn’t score a touchdown on five red-zone drives in the first half. Khalil Mack hasn’t been disruptive the last three games. He has one sack and zero forced fumbles compared to 4.5 sacks and four forced fumbles in his first four outings. This team really needs Akiem Hicks. In the three games subsequent to Hicks being placed on IR, the Bears have had two sacks. They had 17 in the first four. Combine a lack of pressure and Wentz’s ability to get the ball out quickly, and this could get bad quickly for the Bears. Nagy is still broken from the double-doink and Jordan Howard is still pissed off for being traded. Fly Eagles Fly.
Pick: Eagles -4.5
NFL Teaser of the Week
A teaser is a bet that allows you to combine two different games while adjusting the line of each in your favor. This is typically by six points. For example, Chicago -6.5 would move to Chicago -0.5, while Chicago +6.5 would move to Chicago +12.5. A few things to note with a teaser:
- Both teams must cover for your bet to be successful.
- You should try to tease across football numbers (3,4,6,7,10) if possible.
Pick: Seattle -0.5 and Ravens +9.5 (if you’re feeling frisky, make it a three-teamer and take Jags +8)
Kansas @ Kansas State Over/Under 55
Both of these schools are coming off massive wins. Kansas State beat a playoff favorite while Kansas won a big 12 game. Kansas State put up 48 points in Manhattan (the bad one) without a single passing touchdown. 6 rushing touchdowns. SIX. Kansas is giving up 5.9 yards per rush over it’s last 3. Chunk plays all day. On the offensive side for Kansas, they seem to have turned the page under new offensive coordinator Brent Dearmon. Carter Stanley has thrown for 725 yards and 7 touchdowns in two games under Brent. Live look at the boys celebrating each touchdown
Pick: Over 55
SMU @ Memphis Over/Under 70.5
I’ve written about this SMU offense and the seeker before. I love this offense. They average 12.9 yards per pass, and Memphis has yet to see an offense that throws this efficiently (35th in the nation in passing efficiency). As much as I love SMU on offense, Memphis has been even better. Memphis ranks sixth in the nation in passing efficiency behind Oklahoma, Bama, LSU, Ohio State, and Minnesota. Here’s the cherry on top: SMU gives up 270 yards passing per game, which is 104th in the nation. Both defenses have been average in the red zone, allowing scores on over 85% of opponents’ red-zone possessions. Expect chunk yards galore in this matchup and hammer that over. If that’s not doing it for you, I also advise Liberty at UMASS over 70, Houston at UCF over 70, and Fresno State at Hawaii Over 69.5.
Pick(s): Over 70.5, Over 70, Over 70, Over 69.5
The Blindly Follow Me Because You’re a Degenerate Pick:
Utah -3.5 @ Washington
Pick: Washington +3.5
Featured Photo: Getty Images