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Fantasy Retrospection: 2019 Fantasy Football Year in Review – QBs, WRs, and Kickers

In this series, I will be examining the top fantasy players by position and comparing them to their average draft position (ADP).

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In this series, I will be examining the top fantasy players by position and comparing them to their average draft position (ADP). The intent is to see where each position can be drafted, in order to maximize points and value of players.

This edition starts with quarterbacks, wide receivers, and kickers. Be sure to look out for the next edition with running backs, tight ends, and defenses!

Quarterback

Preseason top players by ADP:

  1. Patrick Mahomes, KC: ADP: 19.3
    • Ending Ranking: QB 7
  2. Deshaun Watson, Hou: ADP: 47.1
    • Ending Ranking: QB 2
  3. Aaron Rodgers, GB: ADP: 55.7
    • Ending Ranking: QB 9
  4. Baker Mayfield, Cle: ADP 63.2
    • Ending Ranking: QB 20
  5. Matt Ryan, ATL: ADP: 69.2
    • Ending Ranking: QB 11

Top Scorers (as of Week 16)

  1. Lamar Jackson, Bal: 415.68 points
    • ADP: 97.6 (QB 12)
  2. Deshaun Watson, Hou: 320.98 points
    • ADP: 47.1 (QB 2)
  3. Russell Wilson, Sea: 308.38 points
    • ADP: 88.4 (QB 10)
  4. Dak Prescott, Dal: 308.16 points
    • ADP: 127.2 (QB 18)
  5. Jameis Winston, TB: 290.82 points
    • ADP: 105.1 (QB 13)

Analysis

This data cements the idea that quarterbacks should not be drafted very high. They will contribute a lot of points to teams, but if you take out Lamar Jackson’s insane statistical season, there is not much difference between two through eight at the position. Even from eight to nine (Kyler Murray and Aaron Rodgers, respectively) there was only a 13 point difference. Keep in mind that these statistics are based on the season, so someone like Jameis Winston, while a top five QB, had games of nine points and five interceptions, so these numbers might be a little misleading. Yes injuries do play a part here. For example, Mahomes’ and Brees’ numbers suffered due to injury, but that is football for you and you probably should not have drafted them as high as you did in the first place. In fact, of the top 10 QBs, six were taken among top ten QBs during drafts, and only one was taken in the same position or greater in regards to where they ended up in points (Watson, ADP of two and was the second QB). The others were all taken before other QBs who scored higher than them.           

Wide Receiver

Preseason top players by ADP:

  1. Devante Adams, GB: ADP: 6.4
    • Ending Ranking: WR 26
  2. DeAndre Hopkins, Hou: ADP: 7
    • Ending Ranking: WR 3
  3. Julio Jones, Atl: ADP: 10.2
    • Ending Ranking: WR 4
  4. Michael Thomas, NO: ADP: 10.4
    • Ending Ranking: WR 1
  5. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pit: ADP: 12.9
    • Ending Ranking: WR 62

Top Scorers (as of Week 16)

  1. Michael Thomas, NO: 366.9 points
    • ADP: 10.4 (WR 4)
  2. Chris Godwin, TB: 276.1 points
    • ADP: 39.9 (WR 16)
  3. DeAndre Hopkins, Hou: 268.54 points
    • ADP: 7 (WR 2)
  4. Julio Jones, Atl: 259.3 points
    • ADP: 10.2 (WR 3)
  5. Julian Edleman, NE: 250.68 points
    • ADP: 36.1 (WR 14)

Analysis

With the wide receivers, we start to see more of a differentiation between players, there was a 43.4 point difference between the WR 2 (excluding the ungodly numbers that Thomas put up) and WR 10. This is where it seems like draft capital should be spent early on top guys. Only four of the top ten WRs, based off of ADP, ended up in the top ten at the position. But the top guys seemed to hold their value, Hopkins started WR 2 ended WR 3, Jones started as WR 3 ended up as WR 4, and Thomas started WR 4 and ended WR 1. With injuries and inconsistencies around them, plus whatever you want to call that with Antonio Brown, led to top receivers falling off. This seems to be a position that value could be found later on, but the top guys always seem to separate themselves from the pack. 

Kicker

Preseason top players by ADP:

  1. Greg Zuerlein, LAR: ADP: 144.3
    1. Ending Ranking: K 7
  2. Justin Tucker, Bal: ADP: 149.7
    1. Ending Ranking: K 4
  3. Harrison Butker, KC: ADP: 151.6
    1. Ending Ranking: K 1
  4. Stephen Gostkowski, NE: ADP: 157.5
    1. Ending Ranking: K 34
  5. Wil Lutz, NO: ADP: 157.6 
    1. Ending Ranking: K 2

Top Scorers (as of Week 16)

  1. Harrison Butker, KC: 146 points
    1. ADP: 151.6 (K 3)
  2. Wil Lutz, NO: 144 points
    1. ADP: 157.6 (K 5) 
  3. Matt Gay, TB: 132 points
    1. ADP: 484 (K 31)
  4. Justin Tucker, Bal: 129 points
    1. ADP: 149.7 (K 2) 
  5. Zane Gonzales, Ari: 125 points
    1. ADP: 472 (K 28)

Analysis

Kickers do not matter. Alright let me rephrase that, the specific kicker that you have does not matter; the kickers themselves are negligible. There was only a 33 point difference between the top kicker (Butker) and the tenth kicker (Boswell), but a 310.4 spot difference in ADP. So, 310 picks later, you could get a player who had 33 less points than the top guy, which is more than worth it considering kickers get the least amount of points on the fantasy team. The top kicker got 76 less points then the next lowest scoring position, the defense. Take fliers on players at other positions who could surprise and do not worry about your specific kicker.  


All statistics via fantasydata/nfl.com

Statistics are through week 16 and use PPR format.


Featured Photo: ABC 13 Houston

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