Guide to Super Bowl Prop Bets
A guide to prop bets for Super Bowl LIV.
The Super Bowl is a national holiday, regardless of if it’s officially recognized as one. This Sunday, millions of people will gather in bars, family rooms, man caves, and basements alike to take in this year’s edition of the Super Bowl. Initially, Kansas City opened up as 1.5 point favorites, which in the gambling world is essentially a “pick-em.” Most point spreads are set at or around football numbers (-7.5 or -14.5 for example), and let me tell you, that extra point will get you. Today, I come to you with a different set of bets from the never-ending list of prop bets available for this Sunday’s game.
With the game total skyrocketing for Super Bowl 54 (going from 51.5 to 55.0 since it opened), the betting value, according to MyTopSportsbooks.com, is now, generally, on under plays.
A few we like in particular are:
- First half under 27.0: San Francisco, in particular, will not be in a hurry in the first half. They will start the game pounding the rock and chewing clock. Their defense is also good enough to prevent Patrick Mahomes from torching them repeatedly, like he did to both Tennessee and Houston.
- Blake Bell under 7.0 receiving yards: KC’s #2 tight end is not going to be a big part of the offense in the biggest game of the year with Travis Kelce healthy.
- Raheem Mostert under 2.5 receptions: The SF bellcow doesn’t often factor into Jimmy Garoppolo’s passing game, and Jimmy Garoppolo’s attempts are likely to be pretty low, to boot.
“Will there be an onside kick attempt in the game?” +125 (Bovada)
This may be the easiest money on the board, and this is why: this game is going to be close and most likely won late in the fourth quarter. Regardless of the point differential late in the game, I feel this is one of the safest bets on the board. For Christ’s sake, it’s the Super Bowl. We’ve seen onside kicks in games that mean much less, so go ahead and lock this one in for some free money.
“First Touchdown Scorer Kansas City Chiefs” Damien Williams +300 (Bovada)
In the last three games, Williams has five touchdowns. This guy can often get lost in the arsenal of weapons the Chiefs have at their disposal. He is going to provide Patrick Mahomes a safety blanket catching passes out of the backfield and will presumably take a majority of the carries on Sunday. The Niners do have an elite secondary and over the last few games the Chiefs have gotten off to slow starts, so look for the Chiefs to establish the run game early to set up their offense for the rest of the game.
“Score in the first seven minutes and 30 seconds of the first quarter” +175 (Bovada)
This is one of those bets for which you must have a cold beer in hand and a full plate of food. This is your first bet of the game for most people, so your performance for the rest of the game rests solely on this bet. Put your seatbelt on (yes, I know you’re on a couch) and get your DE-FENSE chants flowing. The Chiefs haven’t scored in the first 7:30 of a game since December 15th against the Broncos. The 49ers have seen a bit more success early on, as the last time they scored in the first 7:30 of the game was in the Divisional Round against the Vikings. This is the Super Bowl; there will be some early-game jitters and potentially a case of the drops for the Chiefs, as they’ve had issues with that in their last two games. The 49ers are going to be in no hurry to move the ball, and a half quarter to start the game with no points is not a big ask considering the payout for this bet. If this bet does indeed hit, it lines up perfectly with the first half under of 27, which at the moment is +100. I’m here to tell you to rock with both.