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Mitchell Trubisky Might Be Better Than You Think

Statistical analysis might shed new light on Chicago’s upcoming QB battle.

Photo: Creator: Scott Taetsch Credit: Getty Images Copyright: 2019 Getty Images

Chicago Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky has been a polarizing figure in the league since GM Ryan Pace traded up to take the North Carolina product with the second pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. Experts and fans alike have been mixed in the three years since the selection, with many questioning if Trubisky will ever live up to the hype that comes with such a high selection. Others have taken it a step further, claiming the fourth year pro is the ‘worst starting quarterback in the league.’

Warranted or not, the criticism started early in the season and hasn’t let up deep into the 2020 offseason. Adding more fuel to the fire, Trubisky is set to battle Super Bowl LII MVP Nick Foles for the starting quarterback position when the Bears report to Training Camp. Still, the question remains: Is Mitchell Trubisky a starting quarterback in the NFL? Lets take a look at Trubisky’s statistics under Matt Nagy to formulate a hypothesis.

In two seasons under Coach Nagy, Trubisky’s numbers look like this:

  • 29 Starts
  • 19-10 Record
  • 41 Touchdowns / 22 Interceptions
  • 615 Completions / 950 Attempts / 6,361 Yards
  • 65% Completion Percentage
  • 88.7 Passer Rating

While these numbers don’t jump off the page for a former #2 overall pick, a closer look at the per game average may tell a different story. By taking the total individual statistics and dividing them by the amount of games Trubisky has started under Coach Nagy, we get the following per game averages:

  • 1.4 Touchdowns / 0.4 Interceptions
  • 21 Completions / 33 Attempts / 219 Yards
  • 64% Completion Percentage
  • Passer Rating N/A

The touchdown-to-interception ratio can make looking at this figure without context confusing, so for the final step, lets project what a full season would look like from Mitchell Trubisky. To do this, we simply multiply his average statistics by 16. This leaves us with the following statistics and where they would rank in the 2019 season:

  • 22 Touchdowns (T-16th) / 12 Interceptions (11th)
  • 336 Completions (12th) / 528 Attempts (T-11th) / 3,504 yards (18th)
  • 64% Completion Percentage (17th)
  • 87.8 Passer Rating (20th)

While this is far from a proven measure to predict statistical success for any player, it does offer an additional perspective to what Mitchell Trubisky is capable of. If he were to start all sixteen games at his average statistical pace, he would rank near the middle of the league in most statistical categories. Now this begs the question, how would Chicago Bears fans respond to this level of performance?

Note: Statistics with decimals .5 and above were rounded up the nearest whole number, excluding ‘Touchdown/Interception Ratio’.

Passer Ratings calculated by Pro Football Reference.

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