We’ve had a wonderful week and a half, and the record for the MLB season sits at 52-43. Luckily, with Tuesday, you get a full slate of games to bet. Let’s get to it.
Rangers vs. Padres
I typically do not handicap a game purely based on emotion, but all around the baseball world today, people are discussing this 3-0 grand slam from Fernando Tatis, Jr:
It was Tatis’ second home run of the night and Chris Woodward, the manager of the Texas Rangers, had some choice words to say about Tatis not being a good sport for homering on a 3-0 pitch in a blowout game. I didn’t know scoring runs was disrespectful, but whatever. Ironically, this is seemingly about unwritten rules, and I’m writing about them. So how does this factor into betting this game? It should motivate the Padre bats early. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Rangers threw at Tatis at one point in this game, but either way, tensions will be high. The Padres seem to be running with a bullpen game as Adrián Morejón will be opening against the Rangers’ Mike Minor. Minor has been a bit streaky this season, so if the Padres can get to him early, they should be fine.
Pick: Padres -112
Diamondbacks vs. A’s
Last Friday, Stephen Piscotty hit this game-tying grand slam in the top of the ninth inning for the A’s after I bet them.
They went on to win the game. The A’s are a magical team, and Luke Weaver is atrocious this season. Sure, he throws the ball hard, but he ranks in the 11th percentile in Hard Hit Percentage, the 17th percentile in Exit Velocity, and the third percentile in xwOBA. Oakland has 29 homers against right-handed pitching. Oh, and Frankie Montas starts for them. Advantage: A’s.
Pick: A’s -145
Yankees vs. Rays
This is a marquee matchup for starting pitching. For the Rays, you have Blake Snell, and for the Yanks, you have Masahiro Tanaka. Here’s where the edge comes: the Yankees are in the middle of the pack hitting-wise against lefties with a .245 batting average. I don’t always like batting average because it doesn’t tell the complete picture, but if you’re a stat nerd like I am, their xwOBA against specifically Blake Snell in 130 plate appearances is .308. The Rays sport a .266 xwOBA against Tanaka in 157 PAs, but they are also above average against righties at the dish.
Pick: Rays -121
Twins vs. Brewers
Finally, I have an underdog for you. Corbin Burnes will go 3-4 innings for you against the hard-hitting Minnesota Twins. Kenta Maeda, however, has struggled for the most part against this Brewers lineup in the past. Maeda could go deeper into the game, but if the Brewers hit him, this negates his inning-eating capabilities. Also, the Brewers have the third-most valuable bullpen in the MLB with 1.7 fWAR, according to FanGraphs. If the Brewers can hold a lead after Maeda, they should be able to maintain said lead. Give the Brewers a bet.
Pick: Brewers +143
I’m betting four road teams here, but without fans, home is where the heart is. As always, follow me on Twitter @cwsdjt. I give out picks daily in addition to these articles. There could even be a couple more picks later today, so stay tuned and good luck!