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MLB Gambling Picks – 8/21/20

Start your weekend with the excitement of some MLB betting action.

I’m 17-11 over the last seven days entering a full slate of games on this fine summer Friday. It’s Crosstown Classic weekend in Chicago. You can feel it in the air. To make this even better, I have more #OnTapBets for you than just the Cubs/White Sox game. Let’s get to it.

Terry Bradshaw picks a lock and a upset that play each other

Rays vs. Blue Jays

Matt Shoemaker and Ryan Yarbrough have both pitched against this opponent twice this year already. Yarbrough is yet to give up a run to the Buffalo-based Jays in those two starts. This is a spot bet. The Blue Jays are coming off of a two-game sweep of the Phillies. The Rays are now leading the American League East, just liked I predicted, after sweeping the Yankees. The main difference here is the lineup. The Rays rank third in the MLB in WRC+ with 116. The Blue Jays are still above average at 106. Look for the Rays to jump on Shoemaker early to possibly build on their AL East lead.

Pick: Rays -161

Braves vs. Phillies

Again, the Phillies are a better hitting team than the Braves with 116 WRC+. The difference here with the AL East foes is Aaron Nola against the current crop of the Braves roster. In 230 plate appearances, the Braves hold a .308 xwOBA, while the Phillies sport a .332 xwOBA against Max Fried in 100 plate appearances. The numbers are telling enough in aggregate. The biggest hindrance to the Phillies’ success is their bullpen. They will need a lead when Nola exits after going six-plus innings. If that happens, basically getting even money with the Phillies is a good investment.

Pick: Phillies -101

Cubs vs. White Sox

Finally, we get to the Crosstown Classic. I’m sure anyone reading this knows I am a Sox fan; however, I am 10-2 betting the South Siders this year. That’s 66% of their wins. The pitching matchup is Jon Lester vs. Dallas Keuchel, two southpaws, at Wrigley Field. It’s a nice summer day here in Chicago. There is a light breeze of 4 MPH from the south. The White Sox hold a .291/.366/.576 slash line with an OPS+ of 149. Much like WRC+, 100 would be average. The Cubs slash .217/.347/.362 with an OPS+ of 93, so they’re slightly below average against lefties. Keuchel owns a 58.3% groundball rate on the season. This will play into the White Sox favor with his 2.67/1 K/BB ratio. The Sox may struggle against Hendricks this series, but they should be fine today with Lester pitching.

Pick: White Sox -109


That does it, folks. As always, follow me on Twitter @cwsdjt. I give out picks daily in addition to these articles. There could even be a couple more picks later today, so stay tuned and good luck!


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