After a slightly positive week, I sit at 67-53 (55.83%) on the season. MLB now betting has a slightly higher juice on favorite moneylines, which have made up the bulk of my bets, but let’s make everyone a bit more profitable with my four #OnTapBets for today. The latest MLB odds are taken from sportsbettingdime.com, may luck be in your favor!
White Sox (-235) vs. Pirates / Rays (-215) vs. Orioles (2-Game Parlay)
I’ve handed out a couple of these parlays when the moneylines get steep on two games I really like. That’s the case here. You have two of the top pitchers in the American League in Lucas Giolito and Tyler Glasnow. The Orioles have lost seven of their last ten. The White Sox are on a tear, and the Pirates could very well be the worst team in the MLB. Giolito should be able to handle a very weak lineup, much like he did with the Tigers last Thursday. Glasnow has two inflated starts but will be fine tomorrow.
Pick: White Sox & Rays Parlay +108
Rangers vs. A’s
On Monday, Lance Lynn and the Rangers held the A’s to two runs on eight hits. Look for those numbers to stabilize. There is not much of a competitive advantage between Kyle Gibson and Sean Manaea; however, the Rangers cannot hit lefties (.221 AVG in 2020). Meanwhile, Oakland is the best defensive team in the MLB and carries a 107 WRC+. They also have 42 home runs compared to Texas’ 23. Look for the A’s to triumph.
Pick: A’s -165
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox
Neither of these teams are that strong, hence the reason I haven’t bet either. I just couldn’t get a solid read on either club. Today, that changes. The Blue Jays start Chase Anderson against the lefty, Kyle Hart. Both will probably go about three innings each. Here’s the separation: the Blue Jays have the strongest bullpen in the majors (2.5 fWAR). On the other side of the coin, the Red Sox have an abysmal bullpen, where it would actually be more valuable to them to end the game after their starting pitching (-0.3 fWAR). This is the difference. Boston also sports a .243 AVG against righties, while Toronto (or Buffalo) has a .262 AVG against lefties. Grab the Jays with a small juice on the line.
Pick: Blue Jays -132
Tigers vs. Cubs
The Cubs demolished the Tigers on Monday night 9-3. Sometimes, it is a good idea to look at the other side the following game, but I will not. The Tigers are awful. The Cubs are a league-average hitting team at this moment, and that is with a sidelined Kris Bryant and a Javy Baez 53.7% groundball rate. Either way, Baez figured that out last night, blasting two home runs. I’d expect more of the same going forward. In addition, the Tigers starter, Spencer Turnbull is over performing. He can throw a fastball and spin a curveball, but his opponent exit velocity ranks in the 11th percentile of the MLB. The hard hit percentage against him ranks in the 28th percentile. Meanwhile, Tyler Chatwood’s numbers are a tad skewed because the Royals demolished him his last time out. Let’s hope he’s not a head-case because that is the only reason the Cubs lose this game.
Pick: Cubs -125
That does it, folks. As always, follow me on Twitter @cwsdjt. I give out picks daily in addition to these articles. There could even be a couple more picks later today, so stay tuned and good luck!