MLB Gambling Picks – 8/28/20
Outlining 5 MLB gambling picks for a full slate of Friday baseball action.
It has been a back-and-forth week for me. We’re 72-60 overall. That is the key takeaway. There is a full slate of games this fine Friday. There is a chance some of these games get postponed due to the most recent protests, but I will keep you updated on my Twitter feed as that news progresses. Let’s get to it!
Tigers vs. Twins (Game 1)
This game was postponed yesterday. You have the same pitching matchup in the now-seven-inning affair: Matt Boyd vs. Randy Dobnak. Now, Dobnak is not a fire-baller, but I believe he can get the job done against the Tigers lineup and hand it over to the Twins ‘pen, a group that ranks seventh in MLB fWAR at 1.7 in this shortened season. The separation point between the Tigers and the Twins is the lineup. The Twins have a 116 WRC+ compared to 77 WRC+ for the Tigers, which is flat out abysmal. Boyd also ranks in the tenth percentile in Barrel Percentage, which means the Twins hitters should be licking their chops. Take the Twinkies off of two losses against a weak team off of two wins.
Pick: Twins -147
White Sox vs. Royals
I am 14-2 betting on the White Sox this season. That’s 73.6% of their wins. Reynaldo Lopez pitches against Danny Duffy in this one. The Sox have a .334 xwOBA against Duffy. Jose Abreu, last week’s American League Player of the Week, is 18-56 against Duffy. This team MURDERS lefties. Their slash line is .312/.388/.616, which is next to unheard of against lefties. Look for that trend to continue. Even with Lopez on the mound, he will likely only throw about 50 pitches with Gio Gonzalez waiting in the wings in relief. That strategy worked well for the White Sox in a contest against the Cubs last Saturday. Getting the Sox less than -150 is a gift.
Pick: White Sox -144
Rockies vs. Padres
In this matchup, Kyle Freeland goes toe-to-toe with the overrated Zach Davies. Davies has a .344 xwOBA against this Rockies lineup. This dude has gained the benefit of perhaps the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in the MLB in Petco in San Diego, but he is throwing at Coors Field, which is a notorious hitter’s park. Davies owns a Barrel Percentage in the eighth percentile of the league. Good luck at Coors Field. Freeland also knows how to pitch at home. He hoists a Barrel Percentage in the 92nd percentile. Take the Rockies.
Pick: Rockies -105
Astros vs. A’s
This game is a battle between the two best teams in the AL West. It’s Lance McCullers versus Chris Bassitt. These two teams have similar lineup numbers. The A’s have the defensive edge easily over the Astros, however. Bassitt has the edge on pitching this year. The A’s have historically crushed McCullers with a .400 xwOBA in 70 plate appearances. The Astros have done well against Bassitt with a .359 xwOBA in 110 plate appearances, but he torched the Astros the last time they played (7 IP, 1 ER, 3 hits). Give the edge to the A’s with a little plus money or slight juice.
Pick: A’s +107
Diamondbacks vs. Giants
Both of these teams are coming off of losses, so there is no spot bet here. Zac Gallen is better than Tyler Anderson. Gallen has great peripherals (74th percentile in Exit Velocity, 71st percentile in Hard Hit Percentage, 83rd percentile in xwOBA). Anderson has overachieved slightly with a 3.45 ERA this season. The Diamondbacks should be able to take a lead to their bullpen, who can hopefully hold it against a decent Giants lineup.
Pick: Diamondbacks -163
That does it, folks. As always, follow me on Twitter @cwsdjt. I give out picks daily in addition to these articles. There could even be a couple more picks later today, so stay tuned and good luck!