MLB Gambling Picks – 9/4/20
There are 20 MLB games on the slate for tonight, but here are four bets you should place.
Yesterday, we went neutral (2-2) because the Dodgers couldn’t manage to score one more measly run in the bottom of the eighth inning. I am 8-4 since Monday and 86-73 (54.1%) overall on picks for the 2020 MLB season. We have TWENTY games to bet today. Let’s get to some breakdowns.
Reds (-215) vs. Pirates (Game 2) / Dodgers (-235) vs. Rockies (2-Game Parlay)
The Reds play a doubleheader against the Pirates today. Trevor Bauer throws against Cody Ponce in game two. Ponce has pitched well this season, but Bauer is a seasoned veteran and the Reds have underperformed so far this season. In the shortened game, I wouldn’t expect much work from the weak Reds bullpen. That is probably their weakest feature, so expect Bauer to go at least five innings strong.
On the back end of the parlay, I’m riding with the Dodgers. Anthony Senzatela has a .355 xwOBA when playing the Dodgers in 113 plate appearances. Dustin May has too small of a sample size, but he throws gas. The Dodgers are slashing .265/.353/.477 at home this season. The Rockies also hit righties worse than lefties (.252/.316/.416 vs. .285/.345/.436). Look for the Rockies to struggle to catch up to the movement on May’s fastball and curve, which rank in the 90th percentile and the 97th percentile of the league in Spin Rate, respectively. The Dodgers also have a lockdown bullpen. They have every advantage today.
Pick: Reds & Dodgers Parlay (+109)
Royals vs. White Sox
I am 18-4 betting the White Sox this year. That’s right. This is not a bounce-back spot like it was yesterday, but the Sox should be able to handle Brady Singer for the second time this season. The Sox tagged him for three earned runs over five innings of work last time. The Royals, on the other hand, might have a bit of trouble adjusting to Dane Dunning, who has been spectacular through his first two starts in the majors. One worry with the Sox is the taxed bullpen, but they are the second-best hitting team in the MLB with 120 WRC+. Take the South Siders.
Pick: White Sox -167
Cubs vs. Cardinals
This is the pitcher’s duel of the night: Yu Darvish vs. Jack Flaherty. Wow! This will be a ton of fun to watch, but I give a slight edge to the Cubs because it’s a nice day in Chicago. The Cardinals have 25 home runs as a team. The wind is blowing out to the lake. The pitcher matchup is probably a wash, but with the Cubs at Wrigley, I would give the advantage to the team that can actually hit the ball in the air.
Pick: Cubs -130
A’s vs. Padres
The A’s are coming off of a few dormant days due to positive COVID-19 tests. Can that make them rusty? Sure, but I do not think it will, as long as Matt Chapman can play. Marcus Semien will most likely be out, but the A’s are a deep team. The Padres are good. We know this. They’re one of the hottest teams in baseball. The difference here is that I think Zach Davies is incredibly overperforming, as he has been the last couple of years. His Barrel Percentage against is in the 24th percentile. Meanwhile, Jesús Luzardo ranks in the 70th percentile in Barrel Percentage. The Athletics have one of the most prolific closers in the game in Liam Hendricks. The Padres have better bats, but they don’t perform as well against lefties (.468 slugging percentage). On the other side of the coin, the A’s slug .410 against righties. Pairing that fact with an overachieving righty should negate any advantage the Padres have over the A’s. Grab the A’s.
Pick: A’s -139
That does it, folks. As always, follow me on Twitter @cwsdjt. I give out picks daily in addition to these articles. There could even be a couple more picks later today, so stay tuned and good luck!