MLB Gambling Picks – 9/11/20
Three MLB betting picks to place as Friday’s action commences.
The record for the season currently sits at 102-85 (54.5%). I am 19-14 over the last seven days. I realized I tweeted this out without including a win with the Dodgers over team total on Wednesday night. Let’s keep improving on that with a PACKED day of baseball this Friday.
Rays (-240) vs. Red Sox/ White Sox (-280) vs. Tigers
The Rays start Blake Snell against Andrew Triggs. Snell sports a .257 combined xwOBA against this Red Sox team. I also appreciate the spot because the Red Sox won yesterday’s game, and they are an awful team. Triggs has pitched in three games this season and has given up seven runs in 6.1 innings, which is atrocious. He obviously has not found his footing in Boston, since 2017, when he experienced a string of serious injuries. The Rays also have a top five bullpen in the league, accompanied with a top ten hitting team. Meanwhile, Boston can hit, but they have one of the worst bullpens in the league. In fact, they are so bad, it would be of more value for them to just cut the game off after the starter leaves. Pair that with an ailing Triggs, and you have a nice brie cheese and Sauvignon blanc for the Rays. I know nothing about wine and cheese but that sounds right.
Now for the second leg of the parlay, we have Lucas Giolito competing against top pitching prospect, Casey Mize. Mize has thrown in five games and has given up 15 runs. That is not the most ideal start for the prized hurler. On top of that, in the limited sample size we have of him, opponents are hitting the ball hard off of him. He ranks in the 17th percentile in Hard Hit Percentage and 6th percentile in Barrel Percentage. The White Sox have hammered pitchers this year with a 120 wRC+ as a team. Yes, Mize is a righty and the Sox particularly trounce lefties, but that is about the only thing going for the young pitcher. Giolito carved up the Tigers the last time he pitched against them. Much like you cut up a nice piece of brie cheese when you pair it with a Sauvignon blanc. Take the Sox.
Pick: Rays/White Sox (2-Game Parlay) -107
Rangers vs. A’s
Mike Fiers throws for the A’s and Luis Garcia hurls for the Rangers. Fiers and Garcia are virtually a wash, so I would not give the starting pitching advantage to anyone here. Garcia will only go a couple innings, and the Rangers bullpen is hovering around league average thus far. This is where the A’s get the advantage. If Fiers can give them 5+ innings and then hand it to an absolutely lock-down bullpen, the A’s will handle their business. The Rangers are the worst hitting team in the majors (64 wRC+). For reference, this is like nine Orlando Arcia’s coming to the plate against MLB pitching…not ideal. The Athletics are a league-average hitting team. If they hit the ball out of the park maybe once, they should handle the Rangers.
Pick: A’s -174
Cardinals vs. Reds
The Cardinals mashed the ball against the Tigers in a doubleheader yesterday. This is a perfect fade spot. The Reds lost to the Cubs in a late game, which had a prolonged rain delay. In 173 plate appearances, the Reds rock a .407 xwOBA against Adam Wainwright, while the Cards combat that with a .336 xwOBA against Luis Castillo. Castillo does not necessarily allow hard contact, but he will give up 3-4 runs. He did seem to get back on track against the Pirates, but it’s the Pirates. I expect the Reds to handle Wainwright, after planting four runs against him in late August. The Reds have the advantage with a slightly better bullpen. The Cards have an advantage with the bats, but I expect the Reds to take a short lead into the late innings and close this one out.
Pick: Reds -112
That does it for today’s picks, folks. As always, follow me on Twitter @cwsdjt. I give out picks daily in addition to these articles. There could even be a couple more picks later today, so stay tuned and good luck!