After two awful breaks with the Brewers and the A’s in late innings on Monday night, I currently sit at 19-14 in the last seven days and 112-92 (54.9%) on the season. I have a few picks for this fine Tuesday, much like the fine wine and cheese I discussed in my post last Friday. It got weird. Ok? Let’s move past that. Playoff implications make baseball games even more intense. Here are my picks for today.
Rays vs. Nationals
In this game, we have the ailing Anibal Sanchez against John Curtiss and the Rays bullpen. This is very much a bullpen game for the Rays and we know how vital their bullpen is to them. They are a top-five bullpen in baseball facing a pitcher who ranks in the 16th percentile in Barrel Percentage and the 33rd percentile in Exit Velocity. He has an abysmal FIP of 5.79 and an ERA of 6.81. The Rays lineup also has a 112 WRC+ on the season, so they should be able to jump on Sanchez early. The Nationals sit at 101 WRC+, so they are just about average. Look for the Rays to hold a lead the entire game.
Pick: Rays -175
Brewers vs. Cardinals
I had the Brewers in the second leg of the doubleheader on Monday, but they steadily blew a 2-0 lead. I will be taking the other side here. Jack Flaherty, better known in Chicago as Lucas Giolito’s friend, goes up against Brett Anderson. Anderson ranks in the 7th percentile in Hard Hit Percentage. The Cardinals have only 41 HRs, but they slash .264/.362/.515 against lefties. Look for them to do the same against Anderson. Flaherty is elite. He ranks in the 92nd percentile in Hard Hit Percentage. Flaherty has only allowed a maximum of three runs, so look for him to hold a below-average Brewers lineup below that threshold. Take the Cards.
Pick: Cardinals – 144
White Sox vs. Twins
The White Sox won for me last night. They walked ten batters and still won a game with their weakest rotation starter. Dylan Cease got them out of multiple jams and some late-inning hitting extended their divisional lead to two games over the Twins. Dane Dunning takes on Randy Dobnak in tonight’s contest. Both pitchers are trending in opposite directions. Dunning, the rookie, has given up six runs in four starts. Now, this is Dunning’s first matchup against a good team, but he will remain accurate and will limit hard contact (82nd percentile in Hard Hit Percentage and 95th percentile in Exit Velocity). Dobnak ranks in the 32nd percentile in Hard Hit Percentage and 65th percentile in Exit Velocity. He has given up 11 runs over his last three starts. The soft-tosser will struggle against a fantastic White Sox lineup. The bullpens are virtually a wash, so this one comes down to the starters. Advantage: White Sox.
Pick: White Sox -120
That does it for today’s picks, folks. As always, follow me on Twitter @cwsdjt. I give out picks daily in addition to these articles. There could even be a couple more picks later today, so stay tuned and good luck!