I had a 2-1 Thursday and I am 16-13 over the last seven days. Overall, the season record sits at 118-98 (54.6%). We jump to a packed Friday of baseball, and I could not be happier. For those who thought I was betting my White Sox too often, I am 25-8 betting them and they were the second team in baseball to clinch a playoff spot. I’m not the only one who is high on them. I digress. Let’s bet.
Mets vs. Braves
The Mets and the Braves are both top-five hitting teams. This is a spot bet. The Mets have won their last two games and the Braves lost on Wednesday. Max Fried is also a better pitcher than Steven Matz. Matz ranks in the 22nd percentile in Exit Velocity, the 23rd percentile in Hard Hit Percentage, and the 15th percentile in Barrel Percentage. In his last 12.2 innings, he has given up 19 runs. On the flip side, Fried ranks in the 98th percentile in Exit Velocity, the 98th percentile in Hard Hit Percentage, and the 94th percentile in Barrel Percentage. Fried will also throw at least five innings. The Mets and Braves have comparable bullpens, but take the Braves with some juice and their starting pitching advantage.
Pick: Braves -160
Astros vs. Diamondbacks
This will be my dog for the night. It’s a matchup of Zack versus Zac. Zac Gallen has one less letter because no one gives him enough credit for how dominant he has been. Zack Greinke, on the other side, does not induce hard contact (66th percentile in Hard Hit Percentage). People will barrel him (29th percentile). Gallen is one of the best starters in the game and only gave up two runs on six hits in his last start against the Astros. The Astros have the advantage with the bats, but both bullpens are very poor. If the Diamondbacks score a few, this could be their win for the series. It’s worth it with the line you get.
Pick: Diamondbacks +160
Mariners vs. Padres
Yusei Kikuchi faces off against Chris Paddack in this matchup. Kikuchi ranks better in all of his peripherals, but Paddack will have a tight leash. Paired against each other, I would not give either pitcher an advantage. According to bullpen xFIP, the Padres are top-ten with 4.27, while the Mariners are dead last at 5.73. the Padres are one of the best hitting ball clubs in the MLB with a 120 WRC+, while the Mariners are below average at 94. All the Padres have to do is offset any damage the Mariners can do to Paddack, and even if the Padres are down, once Kikuchi exits, the door for a comeback is still open. This is why I am betting it, even with a high juice.
Pick: Padres -180
That does it for today’s picks, folks. As always, follow me on Twitter @cwsdjt. I give out picks daily in addition to these articles. There could even be a couple more picks later today, so stay tuned and good luck!