What’s this? Back-to-back days with gambling explanations in honor of the final week of the MLB regular season? That’s right. I am that nice. I also went 2-1 on the picks I sent yesterday, so I hope you took them. Currently, the record sits at 127-102-1 (55.5%). Let’s get to a packed Tuesday with playoff implications across the board.
Nationals vs. Phillies (Game 1) (-194)/ Blue Jays vs. Yankees (-270)
The first leg of this parlay will be the Phillies versus the Nats. The Nats stole game one, making that two straight losses for the Phillies. Aaron Nola is underwhelming, ranking in the 38th percentile in Exit Velocity and the 28th percentile in Hard Hit Percentage, but he does rank in the 67th percentile in Barrel Percentage, so he hasn’t given up the home runs that you would expect. On the other hand, Austin Voth is just bad. Respectively, he ranks in the 25th percentile, the 6th percentile, and the 20th percentile in Exit Velocity, Hard Hit Percentage, and Barrel Percentage. The Phillies have a dreadful bullpen, but Nola will give them six or seven innings. The Nats will likely have to go to the bullpen early, and theirs is a bit feeble, too.
On the second leg of the parlay, Tanner Roark faces off with Gerrit Cole. Cole may throw the ball hard, but he has been smoked like a summer sausage in Milwaukee this season. Don’t let the 3.00 ERA fool you. His Exit Velocity, Hard Hit Percentage, and Barrel Percentage peripherals are concerning and only slightly better than Roark’s. On the positive side, Cole has only let up one homer in September. The Yankees are moving toward a lineup at full strength, and that is scary! If you followed, I said the Rays would win the division, but I had the Yanks making the World Series. I still think that could happen because this team is still good. We’re getting the Yankees off of a loss in which they gave up 11 runs. That will not happen tonight.
Pick: Phillies (Game 1)/Yankees (2-Game Parlay) +108
Indians vs. White Sox
I backed the Sox last night, expecting Dane Dunning to pitch well. He pitched fairly well but had a couple of poor pitches, which resulted in runs for the Indians. The Indians scored seven runs. That does not happen very often. They have done this 11 times this season (once against the Pirates, twice against the Royals, once against the Reds, twice against the White Sox, four times against the Tigers, and once against the Cardinals). They have a team WRC+ of 86, while the White Sox sit at 118. Reynaldo Lopez pitches for the Sox. Cal Quantrill — not Shane Bieber — pitches for the Tribe, so it will probably be a bullpen day for Cleveland. If Lopez can get through three or four innings with little damage, the Sox should take this game. All they have to do is hit, and Luis Robert, Nomar Mazara, and Yoan Moncada have had better approaches at the plate lately.
Pick: White Sox +165
Padres vs. Angels
If you read these posts before, I typically fade Zach Davies. We are not fading him today because Griffin Canning throws for the Angels. I would call this pitching matchup a wash, but the Padres have the edge on the hitting side (118 WRC+ versus 111 WRC+). The two have pretty similar bullpens, but I would expect the Padre lineup to get to Canning early. All Davies has to do is hold the Angels to a few runs and that should get the job done. The juice is worth the squeeze in this one.
Pick: Padres -160
That does it for today’s picks, folks. As always, follow me on Twitter @cwsdjt. I give out picks daily in addition to these articles. There could even be a couple more picks later today. I also plan to put out a video on some MLB futures for the playoffs on Sunday or Monday, so stay tuned and good luck!