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Sabermetrics Prove Yu Darvish Deserves the NL Cy Young over Bauer and DeGrom

Although most fans consider Jacob DeGrom and Trevor Bauer favorites for the NL Cy Young, advanced statistics show that Yu Darvish is more deserving.

Yu Darvish NL Cy Young
Photo: Bleacher Nation

After two months that seemingly went by in the blink of an eye, the MLB regular season is over and season awards are right around the corner. The National League Cy Young, unlike the American League, has been a heated race all season long. Seven of MLB’s eight best pitchers, according to fWAR, belong in the NL. Who reigns on top? Is it Jacob DeGrom, Trevor Bauer, or Yu Darvish? Let’s take a deep dive into ten sabermetrics to evaluate who deserves the Cy Young.

Source: FanGraphs

DeGrom Clearly Behind

The first aspect of this graphic that jumps out at you is DeGrom only having the advantage in two of the ten statistics. Many fans have penciled him in as the favorite even though his K/9 is really the only data point where he’s superior, and strikeouts aren’t in and of itself enough to warrant a Cy Young. I suppose DeGrom’s success in prior seasons is the reason he’s a fan favorite, but the numbers don’t lie. This Cy Young race really comes down to Trevor Bauer and Yu Darvish, as DeGrom’s previous successes don’t carry any weight when it comes to the 2020 award.

Between Bauer and Darvish, it is very close to the naked eye. I mean, Darvish has a much higher fWAR, but Bauer has a much lower ERA. At some point, it just comes down to which stats are valued more than others. Is ERA more indicative of success than fWAR? How important is hard-hit rate? Where does FIP come into play? These are difficult questions, but I’ll try to answer them.

Don’t Overvalue ERA

ERA is a simple stat: it’s the number of runs a pitcher gives up, on average, over the course of nine innings. Its downfall is that it doesn’t take into effect other factors such as quality of contact, innings pitched, fielding efficiency, and sheer luck. It is a very uninvolved statistic that, quite honestly, is overvalued. Especially in a small sample size season like 2020, where anomalies are more prevalent.

Sure, Bauer has the lower ERA, but that does not necessarily mean he outperformed Darvish on the mound. Bauer’s 2.88 FIP means that, if he would have experienced league average results on balls in play, his ERA would have been 2.88, a full one run worse than his actual ERA. See what I mean when I say Bauer was a bit lucky this year? Over the course of a regular 162-game season, his ERA would gravitate closer and closer to his FIP, as anomalies and lucky results in the field would dissipate.

Quality of Contact Stats Favor Darvish

On the other hand, Darvish’s 2.01 ERA and 2.23 FIP means his results were much more in line with what he deserved based on fielding efficiencies and the quality of contact he gave up. I can point to Darvish’s significantly lower HardHit% and virtually identical Barrel% to prove this. Both of these sabermetrics show that batters had an easier time squaring the ball up against Bauer than they did Darvish, and is but one reason Darvish has a superior FIP. In short, while Darvish had a higher ERA than Bauer did, he actually deserved a lower ERA.

Darvish Bauer DeGrom Cy Young
While Trevor Bauer has a superior ERA, he falls short compared to Yu Darvish in virtually every other meaningful sabermetric.
Source: Cincinnati Enquirer

Additionally, Darvish pitched three more innings than Bauer in 2020. While this does not seem like much of a difference in the grand scheme of things, having a starter go deeper into games not only helps you win that individual game, but it also reduces the wear and tear on your bullpen over the course of the season. Now that’s valuable.

When getting into strikeouts and walks, the average fan looks at Bauer’s K/9 and immediately believes he’s superior in this regard. However, when looking at the ratio of strikeouts to walks, a much more meaningful statistic, Darvish takes the cake. The reason I say the K/BB ratio is more meaningful is because strikeout pitchers like Darvish and Bauer are typically more susceptible to walks, as they do not pitch to contact. So, it’s actually more impressive that Darvish was able to strike out that many hitters while simultaneously keeping his number of walked batters so low.

Darvish Deserves the Cy Young

To end the debate, let’s discuss fWAR, the only all-encompassing sabermetric in that graphic. The end goal of WAR is to summarize a player’s total contributions to their team. So, while we can go back and forth all day long on strikeout rate, ERA, and other raw stats, WAR is the only one that takes all data into consideration. This is what I mean when I say “all-encompassing.”

To no surprise, fWAR heavily favors Darvish. For example, a difference of 0.5 WAR is not small, it’s quite significant. And when running through the graphic above, it makes total sense, as the only real advantage Bauer has over Darvish is with WHIP. Darvish pitched more innings, had a lower hard-hit rate, a superior strikeout to walk ratio, and deserved a lower ERA based on his FIP. As a result, Darvish was significantly more valuable. Let’s not assign an elementary statistic like ERA so much value that it single-handedly determines who wins the Cy Young. As baseball fans, we’re smarter than that.

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1 year ago

“Additionally, Darvish pitched three more innings than Bauer in 2020. While this does not seem like much of a difference in the grand scheme of things, having a starter go deeper into games not only helps you win that individual game, but it also reduces the wear and tear on your bullpen over the course of the season. Now that’s valuable.”

All these stats, and you ignored that Bauer pitched 11 games so that he could start Game 1. So actually, 6.6 to 6.3 Bauer went deeper into games, which I hear is valuable.

1 year ago

You are also using deep statistics to prove your point objectively, but you’re subjectively deciding what stats are important. You have WHIP because it’s a stat you have to have, but then showing half of “WH” – BB per 9 because it favors Yu, and not showing the H per 9, because Bauer is literally the lowest in MLB history at 5.05, and Yu is 6.98, because hard hit outs is obviously a sign of lower quality instead of hits allowed? Granted the record is over a short season, but it proves a point. I’ve literally never someone try to overwhelm people with some stats to ignore others, and this is 2020 and an election year.

1 year ago

In an attempt to show the value of Darvish’s small lead in IP, the author points to the importance of going deep into games. Unfortunately, Darvish’s 3 IP lead is created through an extra start. That actually means that Bauer went deeper into each of his starts, which helps his case.

1 year ago

Finally someone that talks some sense. Yu was jobbed and deserved the CY Young. Look at the chart plus throw in an 8-3 record compared to 5-4 plus the Cubs won the division. How is that not more impressive. A 1.73 ERA is nice but not much different than 2.01 to me if you take into account the other stats which Yu led or were very similar.

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