In this edition of Bears Bets Breakdown, Lucas Perfetti (Bears On Tap) and the #OnTapBets experts (Ron Luce and DJ Musterd) break down their favorite props of the week in the Bears at Titans Week 9 contest. Without further ado, here are your staff favorites for tomorrow:
David Montgomery O/U 85.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
If you haven’t noticed by now, it’s tough to bring David Montgomery down. Montgomery is currently tied with Dalvin Cook for most missed tackles forced with 29, the most among ball carriers in 2020. Last week, Montgomery logged a season high in touches and yards, with 84 of his 89 yards coming after contact. David Montgomery should pull a Miley Cyrus and come into the Titans defense like a wrecking ball.
Pick: David Montgomery Over 85.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Anthony Miller O/U 3.5 Receptions
It’s always a little dangerous taking any over for an Anthony Miller prop. It seems as though Matt Nagy keeps Anthony Miller on a ‘short leash’ and if Miller makes a mental error, Nagy goes away from him. Bears fans have seen this a few times, but there are some new wrinkles that have come into play.
In the last two weeks, Anthony Miller has made a few huge, drive-extending plays. 3.5 isn’t a massive number, but Miller has only caught four or more passes in three of eight games so far this season. Vegas has the over set at +128 and we love the value in that. Darnell Mooney is listed at the exact same line and he’s been impressive. So impressive, in fact, that teams may start to key in on him. Mooney is by far the biggest downfield threat on the Bears roster and now that he’s finally connected with Nick Foles, teams have to account for that. This should open things up for Anthony Miller out of the slot and a mental mistake won’t be as costly this week with Javon Wims serving suspension and the Bears tight end room banged up.
Pick: Anthony Miller over 3.5 receptions +128
Value Pick – Robert Quinn Over .5 Sacks +335
Robert Quinn’s sack numbers have been underwhelming, to say the least. There are multiple reasons that factor into this. First, the Bears rarely play with a lead. If the Bears have a lead, it isn’t significant enough to be in predominantly pass-rushing situations. The Titans defense has been struggling and it’s possible the Bears can jump out to a lead early, allowing for more pass-rush opportunities. The Bears also haven’t been forcing as many third-and-long situations that would allow a tenacious pass rush and opposing offenses make it a point to get the ball out of their quarterbacks’ hands quickly.
As previously mentioned, teams have been able to gameplan around the Bears’ pass rush and this is the first time the Bears are facing a bottom-ranked defense since Week 3. The Bears can and should get out to an early lead and let their dogs loose on defense. Robert Quinn has been around the quarterback on damn near every play they ask him to rush and we love the +355 tag on it. Quinn just has to get home once and that’s very possible this week.
Pick – Robert Quinn over .5 sacks +335
There it is, folks. Be sure to follow @BearsOnTap on Twitter. Going forward, we will be providing you with our favorite #OnTapBets on props in every Bears game. Best of luck and Bear Down!