Not much has changed over the past week. Stay true to the method and the wins will come along with it. Currently, the record sits at 38-51-2 (42.7%, -9.48U). This should change with the loaded slate tonight. Let’s dive into the picks.
Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech (-1.5)
This game will be played in Norman, Oklahoma, but the Red Raiders have not played since their heartbreaking loss to Kansas last week. Texas Tech has the best defense in the nation (first in defensive efficiency per KenPom). This should negate an Oklahoma offense that takes care of the ball. Texas Tech is not strong from the free-throw line, so leaving a backdoor cover open is of concern, but at that point, Oklahoma would probably just win the ball game if the scoring is that tight. Texas Tech has held teams to 26.3% from three-point range. Brady Manek and Austin Reaves will shoot, but Terrence Shannon, Jr. and Mac McClung will be able to hold their own defensively. Take the Raiders with the short number.
Pick: Texas Tech -1.5
San Diego State (-2.5) vs. St. Mary’s
San Diego State has a fantastic defense and manages to turn other teams over at the 20th best rate in the country. They also have six players who average at least one steal per game. SDSU also likes to shoot threes (43.1% of FGs). The Aztecs should out-rebound the Gaels, so the explanation is simple: if St. Mary’s begins to turn the ball over and San Diego State hits some shots from outside the arc, the Aztecs could pull ahead quickly.
Pick: San Diego State -2.5
Iowa (-6.5) vs. Purdue
Iowa is playing off of a loss, and if you’ve followed my picks before, that’s the time to bet a team. Iowa has the best offense in the country, and I would expect Luka Garza to outrun Zach Edey all game. Purdue also likes to give the ball away, which would help Iowa’s shortcomings on the defensive side of the ball. Purdue takes about 18 seconds per possession, so if the Hawkeyes pull ahead at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, the Boilers will have to force the issue on offense. Keep in mind, Purdue has not won on the road so far this season. Yes, no fans are present, but there is a slight adjustment here as well. Expect the Hawkeyes to grab this one at home.
Pick: Iowa -6.5
Grand Canyon vs. Colorado (-12.5)
Grand Canyon is 5-0 ATS, so it does not look like betting markets have a good gauge on them yet. Now, KenPom has this game at -11 for Buffaloes, so there is a margin baked into the spread, too. Grand Canyon is battle-tested. They lost close games to San Francisco and Arizona State and beat Nevada. Colorado’s best win was against Washington on Sunday. The Antelopes have the 40th most effective FG percentage in college hoops (55.5%), so they should keep the ball in the paint. Anchored by two centers (one 7-footer and one 6-foot-10), this team creates a mismatch for Colorado, whose second tallest player is 6-foot-8. The game will take place at a neutral site, so expect a single-digit contest between the two.
Pick: Grand Canyon +12.5
There you have it, folks. Let’s hope for a good night in hoops. As always, follow me on Twitter, @cwsdjt, where I give out additional college basketball picks that may not show up in these articles. Best bets!