After already diving into whether the Chicago Cubs should trade Yu Darvish, Kris Bryant, and Willson Contreras, it’s time to do the same for Kyle Hendricks. In a normal offseason, I wouldn’t even consider pondering this thought. Organizations with division title aspirations typically don’t trade frontline starters. However, with Theo Epstein’s premature departure and all the rumors of Jed Hoyer pushing for a heavy rebuild this offseason, it’s worth considering.
Stats Prove Hendricks has been a Top 10-15 Starter During his Cubs Career
We can’t answer whether the Cubs should trade Kyle Hendricks without first dissecting just how great Hendricks has been in his Chicago Cubs career. So, let’s take a look at some statistics. The table below shows where Kyle Hendricks ranks in six relevant stats among all qualified starting pitchers since 2015.
I don’t even have to ignore certain years to prove Hendricks’ greatness. There’s no anomaly here. Ever since his first full MLB season with the Cubs in 2015, Kyle Hendricks has been a top 10-15 MLB starter. All the above stats point to that conclusion.
If you think this production hasn’t translated to the postseason, you’d be incorrect. Hendricks touts a 3.12 ERA in 57.2 postseason innings pitched for the Cubs. In the 2016 NLCS and World Series, he posted a 0.83 ERA in 21.2 IP. He’s not only been successful in the regular season, but he’s also dominated when the stakes are highest. Yet Kyle Hendricks is never talked about nationally, has zero All-Star appearances, and is never mentioned in any “Ace” discussions. Why is this?
Kyle Hendricks Doesn’t Strike Hitters Out…So What?
Well, the answer is that Kyle Hendricks doesn’t strike hitters out. Since 2015, Hendricks is 97th in K/9 at 7.78, a far cry from where he ranks in the statistics outlined above. The fact that Hendricks does not overpower hitters with a 98+ MPH fastball is another reason why baseball undervalues his abilities. Nothing about his physical makeup warrants intimidation. Thus, nobody outside the Cubs’ organization considers him an “Ace.”
But this is a ridiculous mindset. I’m supposed to devalue the six above statistics that indicate Kyle Hendricks is a top 10-15 starter because he doesn’t strike enough hitters out? Why does that make his fWAR, ERA, and exit velocity over a six-year span any less impressive? It doesn’t. Give the Chicago Cubs credit for realizing this and refusing to doubt his early success. The rest of baseball holds on to this medieval thinking that the game’s top pitchers have to overwhelm the opposition with strikeouts. I reject that premise entirely.
Strikeouts are needed in certain situations, don’t get me wrong. When men are on base, missing bats is how pitchers get out of jams. But so does consistently generating weak contact. Kyle Hendricks is generating more weak contact than the “Aces” that are striking more hitters out than he does, so who’s to say which method is more “Ace” worthy? If anything, I’d contend Hendricks’ method is more valuable because pitching to contact keeps pitch count down. Constantly avoiding contact to strike hitters out is how starters have an 85+ pitch count by the fifth inning.
Kyle Hendricks Does Have Nasty Stuff
When analyzing Hendricks’ lack of strikeouts, most fans, even Cubs fans, jump to the false conclusion that he doesn’t have nasty stuff. This is wrong. We all know how deceptive Hendricks’ changeup is. Nobody would be surprised that it ranks second in baseball since 2015. But a fact that eludes almost every baseball fan? His fastball ranks 11th in that same timeframe. And he throws 86 MPH.
Hendricks’ fastball is effective because he mixes speeds and changes the hitter’s eye level better than anybody in MLB. He can also place any of his pitches wherever he wants. This allows him to not only get away with throwing 86, but use it as a weapon. It doesn’t matter that Hendricks’ approach to the game lacks the “wow” factor that comes with strikeouts. The end result is the same: he gets hitters out.
Team-Friendly Contracts for Starting Pitchers are Rare
Everything I’ve outlined is why the Cubs were able to extend Kyle Hendricks through 2024 at $14 million annually Baseball touted his early success as unsustainable given his perceived lack of overpowering stuff. Rather than write him off under a cloud of doubt, the Chicago Cubs capitalized and signed a top 10-15 starter on the cheap relative to his value. That is seldom seen. Frontline starters typically come with a hefty price tag.
Given Hendricks’ production, team-friendly contract, and age, his trade value should be as high as any starter in MLB not named Shane Bieber. But given baseball’s tendency to undervalue Hendricks’ skillset, it’s almost a certainty that no other ballclub values him that high. And if that’s the case, why should the Chicago Cubs trade Kyle Hendricks if the offered returns won’t match his historical production?
Should the Cubs Trade Yu Darvish or Kyle Hendricks?
If I had to choose whether the Chicago Cubs should trade Yu Darvish or Kyle Hendricks, I’d pick Darvish without blinking an eye. Not only is Hendricks’ contract more team-friendly, but he will also be in his prime for the full life of said contract. You can’t say the same about Yu Darvish. Darvish is 34 and not going to replicate his last 1.5 seasons of dominance for much longer (his contract runs through 2023 at ~$19.7 million annually).
And to make the decision even easier, Darvish has a higher trade value because he excels at everything baseball overvalues. He has the highest K/9 in MLB history. His ‘wow’ factor is through the roof due to how foolish he can make hitters look.
The Chicago Cubs Should View Kyle Hendricks as Untouchable
I’m not trying to knock anything Yu Darvish has accomplished. He was phenomenal in 2020 and deserves all the recognition he has received. Honestly, Darvish should have won the NL Cy Young. But for all the reasons outlined above, there’s just no conceivable reason for the Chicago Cubs to trade Kyle Hendricks and keep Darvish. Darvish is older, is likely going to decline sooner, is more expensive, and is on a shorter-term contract. Regardless of how much fans love him, if the Cubs are going to trade one of their two frontline starters, they should trade Yu Darvish. Kyle Hendricks should be untouchable.