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On Tap Bets: College Basketball Edition – 12/29/20

Lock in these three bets for a successful night of gambling.

Photo: FantraxHQ

As expected, the tides are starting to finally turn in my direction. The record is currently 51-58-3 (46.8%, -3.09U). Tuesday has plenty of games, including some day matchups. What I have below starts in the evening, but don’t be surprised if I tweet out a last minute day game bet. Here we go:

Rutgers (-3) vs. Purdue

Rutgers blew a 15-point lead over Ohio State last weekend. I took the Buckeyes, so thank you to the Big Ten refs who called plenty of fouls on Myles Johnson and Mamadou Doucoure, while Cliff Omoruyi sat with an injury. Let’s pray that does not happen again. Luckily, this game is at the RAC (Rutgers Athletic Center), so if anything, the refs should be favorable. Zach Edey is a bit slow, so I would expect Johnson to be able to handle him. If anything, Edey may be the one in foul trouble. Rutgers has one of the most effective defenses in the country (15th overall in adjusted efficiency on KenPom). Jacob Young is expected to play, so look for him to cause some raucous with Purdue’s guards. Purdue definitely has a size advantage with no Omoruyi on the court, so Doucoure will have to log minutes. However, Ron Harper should be able to play larger than his size. Purdue is 3-6-1 ATS this season. Expect them to look disrupted early, since they have a tendency to turn the ball over.

Pick: Rutgers -3

Mississippi/Alabama – Total 147.5

Mississippi has the 5th best defense in the entire NCAA. Luis Rodriguez and Devontae Schuler both average around two steals per game. They will make Alabama look sloppy at times, even if they do not typically have a tendency to give up the ball. KenPom has the total set at 143, so there is a margin baked into this early total, as well. Do not discount ‘Bama, either. Their defensive efficiency is 60th in the country, so expect a low-scoring affair in this matchup. Ole Miss shoots 28.8% from downtown, and Alabama shoots 30.2%. The scoring pace should be set early, so do not worry about either of these teams making up ground by shooting threes. I would take this down to 145.

Pick: Under 147.5

Iowa (-11) vs. Northwestern

Northwestern entered the top 20 in the most recent AP Poll, after opening the Big Ten season 3-0 with wins over Michigan State, Indiana, and Ohio State. They make their way to Carver-Hawkeye Arena to take on Luka Garza and the Iowa Hawkeyes. Iowa has the second-best offense in the country, only second to Gonzaga, who beat them earlier this month. Now, normally, I would avoid betting Northwestern after three straight wins, but this line is larger than expected. The line should be close to +8 or +9, so there is some value there. In addition, Northwestern shoots 40.9% from three this season, so the backdoor is always open. With a top 20 effective field goal percentage against one of the worst defenses in the Big Ten, it’s worth it to take the ‘Cats here. Northwestern has a better defense, and they will just need to corral enough boards to remain even with Iowa.

Pick: Northwestern +11

There you have it, folks. As always, follow me on Twitter, @cwsdjt, where I give out additional college basketball picks that may not show up in these articles. Best bets!

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