After a tough Tuesday with some bad breaks and postponements and a 3-1-1 Wednesday, the overall college basketball On Tap Bets record rests at 67-77-5 (46.5%, -7.67U). Over the last few weeks, things have slowly begun to move in the right direction. Stay the course. There are some good value spots for Thursday night. Let’s get to it.
Cincinnati/SMU – Total 143
SMU has a top-40 adjusted offensive efficiency, according to KenPom. Although they have a tendency to force the opponent to run the shot clock, they can crash the glass (39.6 rebounds per game). Now, Cincinnati is not necessarily an offensive juggernaut, but they are 6-2 ATS on overs while SMU is 4-3. Combined, the two average 148.8 points per game (PPG). Given how the market has not read them correctly just yet, the total is a few points low. Take it to 145.
Pick: Over 143
Stanford (-9.5) vs. Washington
Stanford is one of my futures bets from the beginning of the season. Given Oscar da Silva’s return, it was worth the flier, and you can still get a good number on them. Either way, Washington is not a strong basketball team (to put it nicely). With a 2-6 record ATS, the market does not seem to have a gauge on them either. KenPom makes this line -11, so you have an extra 1.5 points baked into the line as of now. I would go a step further and say Stanford will win this game by 13-plus points. They tout a top-ten defense, allowing only a 42.2% FG percentage inside the arc with three players averaging more and one steal per game. They also shoot 70% from the free-throw line while Washington struggles with a 43% effective FG percentage (316th in all of the NCAA). Since they only shoot 24.3% from downtown, the backdoor is almost closed as well. Lay the points on the Cardinal.
Pick: Stanford -9.5
Washington State/Cal – Total 130
To round out the night, you get to bet on one of the worst matchups the PAC-12 can offer. The total is 130 if that was not a tell already, but both of these teams play amongst the slowest tempos in college hoops. Cal takes 17.9 seconds per possession to shoot the ball and limits their opponents to slow possessions as well (17.5 seconds). Washington State surprisingly ranks in the top-five in defensive efficiency and holds opponents to less than 40% as an effective FG percentage. The Cougars are 6-3 ATS on unders, so the market does not seem to understand how to measure the strength of their defense. Even if Cal’s Matt Bradley can get hot shooting the ball, expect Washington State to hold him in check for part of the game.
Pick: Under 130
There you have it, folks. As always, follow me on Twitter @cwsdjt, where I give out picks in addition to these articles. Best bets!