After one miss on Monday night and after an overall average weekend, the record is currently 77-88-5 (-10.14U). Saturday was great. I went 6-3, but was taken aback by a tough Sunday. Here are some good value bets for Tuesday.
Tennessee/Vanderbilt – Total 137.5
This was the first play on the board that seemed slightly skewed in the wrong direction. Tennessee plays at a very slow tempo (313th in college basketball) and makes opponents play at their pace, as well. The Volunteers are averaging 17.2 seconds per possession and force their opponents to use most of the shot clock at 17.7 seconds per possession. Tennessee is also 7-3 ATS on unders, so the market seems to overestimate their scoring pace. Since the spread is currently -12.5 for Tennessee, chances of fouling should not impact the total at the end of the game too much.
Pick: Under 137.5
Michigan (-3.5) vs. Wisconsin
Michigan has proven to be a mainstay at the top of the Big Ten this season. Both are top 10 teams, but even with the game in Ann Arbor, Wisconsin should be able to keep this relatively close. KenPom makes the game +1, but the Badgers could win this outright. Wisconsin doesn’t turn the ball over at all. Nate Reuvers should be able to hold his own with Hunter Dickinson in the post, and Wisconsin’s wings have enough depth to keep Isaiah Livers in check. The Badgers also shoot 41.4% from beyond the arc, while the Wolverines allow 34.8% of threes to drop. Wisconsin will throw enough mismatches towards Michigan, but since Michigan has not played a team of Wisconsin’s caliber, take the Badgers.
Pick: Wisconsin +3.5
USC (-15) vs. UC Riverside
Now, this is a filler game for the Trojans because of Washington’s postponement, so catch the line early. KenPom makes this -17, and USC has handled any team outside of the top 60 of those adjusted rankings. USC is also 7-3 ATS with a top 10 defense. Riverside’s saving grace is their unbearably slow pace, utilizing almost every single second they have on the shot clock. They nurse 19.3 seconds per possession, so the only way they cover is if they can keep it close with USC. The major mismatch here is future NBA lottery pick, Evan Mobley against UC Riverside’s Jock Perry. Perry has the height, but his discrepancy is that he only hauls in 3.8 rebounds per game (RPG). Meanwhile, Mobley averages 15.8 PPG and 8.8 RPG. As a team, USC out-rebounds Riverside 41.4 to 36.8.
Pick: USC -15
Kentucky (-1.5) vs. Alabama
After absolutely trouncing Florida on Saturday, the Kentucky Wildcats seem to be back on the right track. Now, Alabama has been playing without Jahvon Quinerly for a few games, but it has not seemed to faze them. The Wildcats are without Terrance Clarke, but much like Quinerly for the Crimson Tide, it did not matter against the Gators. Outside of Tennessee, these are probably the best two teams in the SEC. KenPom makes this game -1, but Kentucky’s defensive efficiency is stellar (top 20). ‘Bama will get quick shots, but against a strong defense, they could struggle. Both teams distribute the scoring well, but the home defensive advantage goes Kentucky.
Pick: Kentucky -1.5
There you have it, folks. As always, follow me on Twitter @cwsdjt, where I give out picks in addition to these articles. Best bets!