The On Tap Bets record has slightly improved over the last week and a half: 21-17 (55.3%) in the last eight days. Now, Tuesday presents an interesting slate of college hoops with a couple of underdogs who could win outright.
Georgia vs. Missouri (-4.5)
Missouri has failed to cover or even win its last two matchups. I’ve proclaimed it time and time again. They are tough to bet because of their streakiness. They beat Alabama, by far the best team in the SEC, ten days ago, so this seems to be the right time to play them. The Tigers will be without Jeremiah Tilmon again, which would have given them a sizeable advantage (no pun intended) over the Bulldogs. Georgia’s only top-60 victories according to KenPom come from Auburn (60) and Ole Miss (51). Missouri does not necessarily have as strong of a defense as Alabama and Tennessee, whom Georgia just played, but Dru Smith and company average over six steals per game, just a shade less than both the Crimson Tide and Volunteers. Georgia ranks 310th in turnover percentage in all of the NCAA. Mitchell Smith and Kobe Brown will have to fill the void in Tilmon’s absence, but given the strength of Missouri’s guards, the Tigers should cover the number.
Pick: Missouri -4.5
Rhode Island (-3.5) vs. Dayton
This Rhode Island team looks completely lost. After beating Seton Hall, VCU, and St. Bonaventure earlier in the season, they have dropped the last four games on their schedule, including a matchup against UMASS. The Flyers actually started that skid for the Rams by handing them an 11-point loss. Dayton’s strength is in their guards: Jalen Crutcher and Ibi Watson. But in this matchup, their post play should reign supreme. Rhode Island’s Makhi Mitchell and Antwan Walker will have to log the most minutes down low. The Flyers have three posts to match, all of whom have a significant size advantage. If Dayton begins to knock down threes early (37.1% on the season), this cover could be in line immediately.
Pick: Dayton +3.5
Arkansas (-3.5) vs. Florida
This is an important battle for placement in the SEC. The Gators come off of a loss against South Carolina, whereas the Razorbacks are on a three-game win streak. However, Arkansas has not defeated a team of Florida’s caliber yet this season. They are 2-4 in Quad 1 games, while Florida stands at 3-2. The Gators can light it up from beyond the arc (37.5%) and have multiple weapons to shoot, but Arkansas’ toughest matchup may be Colin Castleton. Connor Vanover is a defensive liability, even if he stands at 7-foot-3. After him, Castleton is a matchup issue with his 60.8% field goal percentage and 2.6 blocks per game. Arkansas does distribute scoring well, but an effective big has given them issues in the past. A comparable team to Florida would be Missouri, where Jeremiah Tilmon was able to burn the Gators’ defense earlier in the season. Missouri only shot 26.3% from three-point range that game. I know Arkansas just beat Missouri, but that was without Tilmon and they still struggled. Given Florida’s capability to score from anywhere, the advantage slants in their favor.
Pick: Florida +3.5
There you have it, everyone! As always, follow me on Twitter @cwsdjt where I post picks each day. Best bets!