If you tailed Thursday and Friday night’s picks, you’re off to a fantastic start to Week Three of the college football slate, undefeated in fact. Going into a Saturday slate 3-0 is cool and tough. Here are my favorite plays for Saturday.
Cincinnati at Indiana (Cincinnati -3.5)
The spread opened at 1.5 points favoring the Bearcats and quickly moved to 3.5 or 4 on most books. Cincinnati has not only covered both games this year but looked very good doing it, defeating Murray State 42-7 and Miami-Ohio 49-14.
The Hoosiers rebounded from a bad loss to Iowa in their season opener with a 56-14 victory over Idaho last week, covering the 31.5 point spread.
With Ohio State and Clemson already sporting a loss, this game has huge College Football Playoff implications for the No. 8 Bearcats.
Cincinnati goes as far as Desmond Ridder will take them and this game will be a big test for him as he leads his team into a hostile Big Ten crowd. Both teams have an elite defense. The Bearcats arguably have the best defense out of any Power Five school and Indiana’s secondary is the strongest part of their defense behind cornerbacks Reese Taylor and Jaylin Williams.
Despite the blow out to Iowa, the Hawkeyes only averaged 4.73 yards per play and if you take out Tyler Goodson’s 56-yard touchdown run, Iowa only gained 2.91 yards per rush attempt. Nonetheless, a blow out loss is a blowout loss.
The Bearcats have too much to lose in this game. A road win at Memorial Stadium can help solidify themselves in the top four come seasons end. I’ll ride with one of the best quarterbacks in college football here.
UCONN at Army (Army -34)
If you tailed last week, you know I’m big on anyone who plays UCONN. Purdue handled the Huskies easily, covering the 34.5 point spread. Again, this team got blown out by Holy Cross.
We slam whoever plays UCONN until further notice.
Purdue at Notre Dame (Purdue +7, Purdue +260)
We got an in-state battle in South Bend this weekend. The No. 12 Irish are 0-2 ATS to start the season against two mediocre teams. The spread opened at 11.5 and has dropped in Purdue’s favor all week.
The Boilermakers destroyed UCONN and handled Oregon State pretty handily. Notre Dame was able to hang on against Florida State and beat Toledo in what many thought should have been a larger margin.
The Boilermakers aren’t a powerhouse but they’re no slouch either, and the public believes that with how much this has dropped.
It’s not been a great start for Notre Dame’s new defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman. The Irish have allowed four plays of 60 yards or more. The entire ACC combined has only allowed one total. The Boilermakers pass first offense could be in line for a fun afternoon, most notably wide receiver David Bell.
Purdue has not won in South Bend since 1968. However, this could be a trap game for the Irish with them playing Wisconsin at Soldier Field next week. I’m slamming Purdue to cover and perhaps sprinkle on the moneyline just to trigger every Irish fan I know.
Baylor at Kansas (Baylor -17)
Like UCONN, I’m very high on anyone who plays Kansas. Remember, the student section stormed the field after they beat South Dakota. They stormed the field after they beat a FCS school. That’s how low the expectations are.
Kansas is 1-11 ATS in their last 12 contests. They’re also 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games. We slam whoever plays Kansas until further notice.
Georgia Southern at Arkansas (Arkansas -22.5, Over 52.5)
I’m actually going to be in attendance for this game in Fayetteville, which means I have to bet this game. The spread opened at 23 and has surprisingly barely moved.
Arkansas comes in after an upset over No. 15 Texas. Georgia Southern is coming off a terrible loss to Florida Atlantic. One could have a big let down and flip the page or bury the football and forget last week’s debacle.
The Razorbacks put 40 points on Texas, and there’s no reason they don’t do that this week. Their ground attack ranks No. 13 in the nation. Georgia Southern was able to hold Florida Atlantic to just 10 points in the first half and despite the blow out loss in the end, they should at least be able to keep within four touchdowns on Saturday.
Arkansas should be able to score a ton. Perhaps Georgia Southern can get a garbage time score to secure the over.
Old Dominion at Liberty (Liberty -27)
I love betting Liberty. They are always one of the first teams I am looking for when the new slates come out, and if you follow me on Twitter, you already know that.
The Flames are 2-0 ATS so far this season and I don’t see why that doesn’t continue. The Flames had their best season in 2020 and it seems they have carried that into 2021. They went 9-2 ATS last season.
Old Dominion didn’t play in 2020 and are still figuring out their roster this season. This will be their third game in 650 days.
Liberty returned nine players from last season on defense and Hugh Freeze doesn’t let off the pedal on offense, ranking No. 16 in 2020 in points per game. We ride the Flames until further notice.
Rice at Texas (Texas -26.5)
Texas is coming off a tough loss to Arkansas. They return home for the ‘get right’ game against in-state rival Rice. Texas is 71-21-1 in the all-time series. Texas has won 14 straight in the series.
The Owls are 7-25 under their current coaching staff. However, it is ironic that Texas announced its move to the SEC then went to Arkansas and got blown out.
Nonetheless, Rice is not good. Texas gets back on track this week.
San Jose State at Hawaii (Over 60.5)
There is nothing like betting the over on a game when everyone is sleeping. This one is exactly that.
The last four games of this series have averaged out to 72.2 points per game. Hawaii ranks 19th nationally in plays per minute. Both teams don’t know how to tackle. San Jose State ranks 109 and Hawaii ranks 107 in tackling.
I vision big play after big play in a shootout to end the night.
Let’s all go to bed with a winner.
That’s this week’s picks. I will have more throughout the day. Make sure to follow me on Twitter at @CodyOnTap for more picks.