Between Raheem Mostert getting injured early in last week’s 49ers game, Kyle Pitts and the Falcons offense struggling against the Eagles, and the Titans offense getting completely destroyed by the Cardinals defensive line, last week turned out to be horrible for me as far as props go. The only thing I got right in last week’s prop picks article was James Robinson going over his receiving yards total. With that said, it’s a new week, and let’s wipe the slate clean and smash Week Two. Here are some of my favorite prop bets for this week’s action.
Disclaimer: All betting odds are courtesy of BetRivers unless stated otherwise. All lines and odds are as of writing and subject to change.
Derek Carr Over 6.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
With T.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward on the Steelers’ defensive line, Carr will need to get out of the pocket at least a couple of times, and he’s not terrible as a scrambler. He’s not as prolific as names like Jalen Hurts or Lamar Jackson, but he’s capable. Watt and Heyward combined for three sacks, six quarterback hits, two tackles-for-loss, and two forced fumbles in Week One. Josh Jacobs has already been ruled out with an injury, so I believe Jon Gruden will call plenty of pass plays. More dropbacks are good because they set up the potential for more pressures, hurries, and QB scrambles.
Kenyan Drake Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-113 on FanDuel)
Speaking of Josh Jacobs, his replacement, Drake caught each of his five targets last week for 59 yards. Since the start of the 2018 season, Drake has averaged 22.1 receiving yards per game. If we believe the Steelers will be able to put pressure on Carr, we should expect more quick passes and utilization of the dump-off game to bail him out. I’m projecting close to 30 yards receiving for Drake.
Darren Waller Anytime Touchdown (+110)
The Raiders’ offense runs directly through the Walrus. Monday night against the Baltimore Ravens, Waller was targeted the most out of any receiver in the NFL for Week One (19 targets). He caught 10 of those for 105 yards and a touchdown. Without Josh Jacobs to pound the ball into the endzone once the Raiders get into the red zone, Waller should get most of the looks. Last season, Waller was targeted a team-high 33.3 percent in the red zone, which was the third-highest rate in the NFL. At plus money odds, this is tremendous value on Waller.
Jalen Hurts Over 7.5 Rush Attempts (+115)
Last week, the game was out of hand as the Eagles blew past the Atlanta Falcons 32-6. Hurts didn’t have to run much down the stretch but still rushed seven times in the game. In four starts last year, he rushed 18, 11, nine, and eight times in those games. Last season, the 49ers ranked fifth in the league in hurry rate (11.2 percent). In Week One, Hurts looked comfortable and more willing to sit in the pocket or throw on the run than he was last year. However, the Falcons are a much worse defense than the 49ers, in my opinion. Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw are questionable, but both were able to log limited practices Thursday and Friday. Nick Bosa is also back after missing most of last season with an ACL tear, and he picked up a sack last week. Hurts is quick enough to get around pressure, but he won’t be able to sit for too long. My projections have him rushing eight-to-ten times.
Jameis Winston Over 237.5 Passing Yards (-115)
If Zach Wilson can throw for 258 yards in his debut against the Carolina Panthers, we can assume the 2019 passing yards leader can get close to that mark. Jameis didn’t need to throw much last week, but he was highly efficient with a 70 percent completion rate and five touchdowns to zero interceptions. Even after the Saints’ domination of the Packers last week, they are only three-point favorites traveling to Carolina for a tough divisional matchup. Pro Football Focus ranked the Panthers 23rd going into the 2021 season. It could be a tad sweaty, but I think Jameis will get to at least 250 passing yards.
Tony Jones Under 8.5 Rushing Attempts (-136)
Sticking with the pass-first narrative, I don’t see Tony Jones getting a ton of opportunities to run the ball, barring an injury to Alvin Kamara or a blowout. Kamara is the team’s preferred receiving back, and he’ll get the majority of the rushing attempts as well. The Saints controlled their Week One game versus the Packers from start to finish and won 38-3. Five of Jones’ 11 carries came in the fourth quarter. At that point, the only thing Sean Payton was worried about was grinding out the clock and getting out of there healthy. There’s some juice on this one at -136, but I feel okay laying it. Maybe an option could be combining Winston’s Over for passing yards and Jones’ Under for rushing attempts for increased odds and a better payout.
Myles Gaskin Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
In the ten games Gaskin played last year, he only went under this number twice. Once was 22 yards and the other 16. Last week, he had five catches for 27 yards. They like him as a receiving back, and Tua trusts him. Gaskin was third on the team in target share last week behind DeVante Parker and Jaylen Waddle. Let’s ride Gaskin’s track record as a receiving back and hope he cashes this ticket before the second half gets underway.
David Montgomery Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-117)
Last week, Montgomery showed an extra gear against the Rams when he popped off for 41 yards on the second play from scrimmage. Even with his success, rushing for 108 yards and a touchdown, he only ran the ball 16 times. Will head coach Matt Nagy give his best offensive player the chance to flourish truly? We know how stubborn he can be, especially when it comes to running the ball. However, as low as Monty’s rushing total is, it won’t take him much to go over this mark. Although the Bengals stacked the box and limited Dalvin Cook to 61 yards on 20 carries last week, l still don’t trust their run defense. They ranked second-worst in yards per rush last year, and their secondary is banged up with injuries, which could prevent the Bengals from stacking the box as often if Nagy decides to open up the playbook and take some deep shots.
Kyle Pitts Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-113) and Over 4.5 Receptions (-118)
The matchup between the Bucs and Falcons has the fourth-highest Over/Under on the Sunday slate of games. Pitts burned me last week, but because of that, it’s another opportunity to buy low. Pitts was targeted the same number of times as Calvin Ridley (eight) last week. Although his average yards per target was only 3.88, throwing the ball is how you beat the Bucs. If Jalen Hurts can carve up the Falcons’ secondary, you have to believe Tom Brady will, so this could be an uptempo game with plenty of points chasing on the Falcons’ side of things.
Baker Mayfield Under 32.5 Pass Attempts (-104):🔒 LOCK OF THE WEEK 🔒
Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski loves to run the ball. Last season, the Browns ran at the fourth-highest clip in the NFL (47.78 percent). They didn’t stray too far away from that in their Week One opener with a 46.43 percent rushing play percentage. Behind stud running backs like Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, can you blame them? As a 13.5 point favorite at home, the Browns should control this game against the Houston Texans. Despite Houston having some success against Jacksonville and their running game, holding them to 76 yards, the Jaguars averaged 4.8 yards per carry. They just didn’t run enough to impact the stat sheet.
In games the Browns won last year, Baker only attempted more than 33 passes once. He averaged 27.63 pass attempts in games the Browns won. They won 11 games last year, so that’s not exactly a small sample size. In Week One, Baker only attempted 28 passes against the Kansas City Chiefs, and the Browns nearly beat them. It would be foolish for them to chuck the ball around the yard if they pull out to a handsome lead, which I expect them to do. I’ve seen this Over/Under set at 33.5 on other sites. If you can find that number, smash it. However, 32.5 is more than acceptable. This is a very comfortable bet for me to place, and it’s my lock of the week.
That’ll do it for this week. Good luck, and let’s cash some tickets. Follow me on Twitter @Theriot326 for more picks and ridiculous commentary.
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