College football season is in full force and I’ll be honest with you all, I feel invincible right now. If you’ve been tailing, you went 16-5-1 last week, or perhaps 17-5 if you got Liberty to at the 27.5-point spread. Overall, we sit at 45-25-4. If you have tailed since Week 1, you’re one of the best betters against the spread and overall in the nation. That’s not an exaggeration.
Winning bets are cool and tough and I intend to keep this momentum up. Here are today and Friday’s plays.
Marshall at Appalachian State (App State -7, Under 58.5)
The spread opened at 5.5 but has moved to seven quickly in favor of App State and for good reason. The Mountaineers average 33.3 points per game, 446.3 yards of total offense per game, and 180 yards rushing per game. That’s really good for a top-tier team out of the Sun Belt. They’re also tops in the conference defensively, holding opponents to just 3.5 yards per rush attempt and 18 points allowed per game. That’s bad news for freshman Rasheen Ali, who has 356 yards from scrimmage yards and averages 6.4 yards per carry through three games. Ali already has eight touchdowns, too. Marshall is also 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a loss.
As for the total, last season the final was 17-7 with a similar total between these two teams. I’m not saying that will happen again, especially since the total started at 56.5 and has moved to as high as 59 points. However, in games that these two teams have played where the spread is below double-digits, the total has been below 55 points. The under is 2-1 in those contests.
UNLV at Fresno State (Fresno State -30.5)
Fresno State is coming home after an eye-opening upset at UCLA. Perhaps you might think the Bulldogs are due for a letdown, especially on a short week, but Fresno State is 4-0 ATS to start the season. If you follow me on Twitter, you’ve seen I have been riding this trend since they covered against Oregon in Week 1. UNLV is 0-3 and has allowed every team they’ve faced to score 35 points or more. Slam the Bulldogs.
Liberty at Syracuse (Syracuse +6, Under 54)
I have been tailing Liberty all season, but this week I’m unsure about what we will get out of the Flames. The spread opened at 5.5 and has moved as high as 6.5 on most books. The Flames are 12-2 ATS dating back to the beginning of last season, including 3-0 this year. However, this is the first real test for Liberty in the 2021 campaign. Syracuse is 4-1 ATS in their last five games and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 following a loss. If I had to choose, I’d take Syracuse to cover six points.
As far as the total, neither team has allowed more than 25 points this season. The under has hit in four of the last five games for the Flames and five of the last seven for the Orange. The total opened at 54 and has moved down to 52 on some books. I’m cheering for a fast clock and a lot of punts.
Wake Forest at Virginia (Wake Forest +4, Wake Forest +155)
We got two solid ACC teams in this matchup. The trends speak volumes for the Demon Deacons. Wake Forest is second in the country in takeaways (9). Defense always plays at home and on the road. Historically, Wake Forest does well at Virginia from a betting standpoint. The Demon Deacons are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games at Virginia. They have also won four straight against Virginia overall. Virginia is coming off a tough loss at North Carolina, and it doesn’t get any easier with this stingy defense. There’s no reason to believe Wake Forest isn’t at least in this game at the end.
I went 3-0 on Thursday and Friday night games last week. Let’s see if we can keep the winning streak going. For more plays, make sure you follow me on Twitter at CodyOnTap.