After a tough beat from Appalachian State on Thursday, we rebounded in a big way going 4-1 on Friday. Here are Saturday’s college football betting picks.
Kansas at Duke (Duke -16)
If you’ve been tailing since Week 1, you know Kansas is bad at football. Bad is putting it nicely. They are 0-3 ATS this season, and again, their fan base stormed the field after a win over an FCS school. The Jayhawks are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games. We fade Kansas until their basketball team hits the hardwood this winter when the football season ends.
Notre Dame at Wisconsin (Notre Dame +7, Under 45)
The Irish have gotten by the first three weeks and somehow managed to cover last week hosting a Purdue team that hung around for three quarters. This game will be similar to last week and what we’ve seen every Sunday at Soldier Field for the last 20 years: ugly offense and elite defense.
Wisconsin is one of the worst offensive teams in the nation, only compiling three plays for over 20 yards this season. Now it has to go against one of the best safeties in college football, Kyle Hamilton. On the other side, Jack Coan will go against his former team, but the Badgers shouldn’t be afraid of a quarterback that’s 7-for-22 on passes over 20 yards. The best ground attack will decide the winner in this game. Expect long drives and lots of time in between possessions.
The spread opened at 3.5 and has moved to 6.5 in favor of Wisconsin. At 3.5, I’d side with Wisconsin, but if more money keeps going in the Badgers favor, I’ll take the Irish to at least keep this one close. With the way this one sets up, I don’t see Wisconsin winning by more than a few points. Perhaps a turnover shifts a lead one way or another but both teams’ defenses have been very good to this point.
Bowling Green at Minnesota (Minnesota -30, Under 51)
There’s no question the Big Ten is near the bottom of the Power Five conferences in college football, but Minnesota, all things considered, has been impressive. The Gophers hung around with Ohio State and at points led against the Buckeyes. They pushed (+14) at home in the nationally televised game. After failing to cover against Miami Ohio, they covered 2.5 points easily in a blowout victory over Colorado last week.
They now get a lowly Bowling Green team that is 3-0 ATS this year, but since 2017, the Big Ten is 23-13 ATS against MAC teams. That includes 5-1 this season.
With that said, covering 30 points isn’t easy but Bowling Green’s offense has been awful to this point in 2021. The ground game is averaging just 2.1 yards per carry. The passing game averages just 7.2 yards per attempt. I just don’t see the Falcons scoring many points at all. This team only averages 17.3 points per game anyway. Slam Minnesota and the under.
Wyoming at Connecticut (Wyoming -30.5)
Wyoming has scored 19, 50, and 45 points in their three games this season. The Cowboys are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five road games but UCONN is bad, as I’ve said in previous weeks. The Huskies did cover against Army thanks to some garbage time touchdowns that made a large blowout a smaller blowout, but they are still 15-37-2 ATS in their last 54 games.
Clemson at NC State (NC State +9.5)
The spread opened at 12 points and has moved down to 9.5 or 10 points on most books. The Tigers needed a goal-line stand to secure a 14-8 win against Georgia Tech last week. Trevor Lawrence is not coming back and I think it’s time I jump in on this. Clemson is 0-3 ATS this season and 17-15 ATS in the College Football Playoff era. Clemson averages just 4.8 yards per offensive play, which ranks 108th in the nation. I’d go down to seven points before flipping to Clemson to cover this spread.
UCLA at Stanford (Stanford +5, Over 58.5)
Stanford finally plays a home game after being on the road or at neutral sites the last seven games. Since inserting Tanner McKee at quarterback, the Cardinal have not lost, including a victory over USC as 17-point underdogs.
Stanford has won 12 of 13 in this series. UCLA needs to bounce back in a big way after Fresno State not only covered an 11.5-point spread but won outright.
Stanford has totaled over 40 points the last two weeks with their new quarterback under center. UCLA touts one of the best ground games in the country, while the Cardinal struggle against the run.
We’ve seen UCLA put up points each game this season. I don’t see it changing this week. I like a shootout with both teams going back and forth.
Good luck to everyone who tails. More picks will be released throughout Saturday on Twitter. You can follow me there at CodyOnTap.