Last week, was very solid for the prop bets article. Out of 11 picks written up, I finished with a 7-4 record. Had it not been for some bad luck, it could’ve been a whole lot better. David Montgomery easily should’ve gone over his rushing yards total, but Matt Nagy decided to throw the ball and let Justin Fields throw a late game interception instead of running with Monty. In typical fashion, he finished four yards shy. Myles Gaskin finished two yards shy of what we needed from him to beat his 22.5 receiving yards total. However, he wasn’t on the field much late in the game due to it being a blowout loss. All in all, after a terrible Week One start, we’ll take it.
Last week: 7-4
Season record: 8-7
Sticking with the process, let’s see if we can crank out some winners again this week. Here are some of my favorite prop bets for Week Three.
Disclaimer: All betting odds are courtesy of BetRivers unless stated otherwise. All lines and odds mentioned are as of writing and subject to change.
James Robinson Over 47.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
As good as the Arizona Cardinals looked against Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans, they still let the big man run for 58 rushing yards. Last week, the defense came back down to earth as they allowed Dalvin Cook to scamper for 131 yards with a six yards per carry average. Given Trevor Lawrence’s rookie struggles, Urban Meyer must consider getting his primary running back more involved. This is the same running back who rushed for over 1,000 yards in his rookie season and ranked seventh among all running backs in yards from scrimmage. I have James Robinson getting to Henry’s Week One mark at a minimum.
Josh Allen Over 263.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Including the playoffs, Josh Allen averaged just over 282 passing yards per game last season. He’s looked subpar to start the year, but I don’t buy into what’s being floated out there about him regressing to his 2018-19 ways. Granted, he still threw for 270 yards in Week One, and he’s faced two stingy defenses in the form of Pittsburgh and Miami. The Bills still pass the ball at one of the highest rates in the league and are third with 71.5 plays per game. Allen should get plenty of chances to sail over this number.
Adam Trautman Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (-115 on DraftKings and PointsBet)
Adam Trautman played fewer snaps than he did in Week One and didn’t see a target last week. The increased usage of Juwan Johnson could be keeping this number down, but I think he gets back involved here with two good coaches trying to outthink one another. I think Bill Belichick will look to take away Alvin Kamara and cede over the middle targets to the tight ends. Alt this number, all Trautman needs is one or two catches to put us in the green.
Ty’Son Williams Over 56.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Running backs have been dropping like flies in Baltimore. Ty’Son Williams came into the season as the third-string back. However, he’s produced with 6.5 yards per carry and 71 rushing yards per game since getting the call. The Lions sit 29th in run DVOA. This is a game the Ravens should win, being 7.5 point favorites. Why risk Lamar Jackson’s health if you don’t have to? Once they get out to a comfortable lead, expect them to hand the ball off to Williams down the stretch.
Justin Fields Over 200.5 Passing Yards (-114)
There seem to be some misinformed opinions out there about Justin Fields. Some people seem to believe he’s only a rushing quarterback. No, he can absolutely throw the ball as well. Take away Allen Robinson’s 35-yard TD drop and Darnell Mooney’s drop, and his day would’ve looked much better last week. He finished with 60 yards passing, but that was in relief with only 13 pass attempts. Even if he struggles or makes mistakes in this game, turnovers could force him to throw even more. 200.5 passing yards is kind of disrespectful. Give me the Over.
David Montgomery Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-109)
Are the sportsbooks just expecting Justin Fields to pull it down and run anytime he feels pressure? The best way to beat nasty pass rushers like Myles Garrett is to take advantage of their aggressiveness and utilize the screen game. David Montgomery has been the Bears’ best offensive player (yes, that’s including Allen Robinson) this season. He had four targets last week and caught three passes for 18 yards. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t get to at least 20 receiving yards in this game.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Again, I’m just not entirely understanding the line they set here. This feels like a lot of recency bias after Clyde Edwards-Helaire fumbled last week. He’s been a disappointing draft pick overall, but Andy Reid continues to use him. In Week One, he caught three passes for 29 yards. During the regular season last year, CEH averaged 22.8 receiving yards and over four targets per game. Not to mention, he had success against the Los Angeles Chargers in their Week 2 matchup when he caught six of eight passes for 32 yards.
Lavonte David Over 7.5 Tackles + Assists (-125 on DraftKings)
Let’s get weird! As football prop bettors, we always tend to favor offensive players over defensive players. Props like these could go overlooked. The Bucs play fast on offense, and this game projects to be high-scoring with a 55.5 point total. A few things are working in Lavonte David’s favor here. If the game shoots out and moves fast, there will be more plays ran and more opportunities for him to pile up tackles or assist on them. Secondly, he’s gone over this number in each of the first two games. Also, if the game goes under the total, I have to believe he’s part of the reason why. You’re laying some juice at -125, but I think it’s a solid bet.
Darius Slayton Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Darius Slayton has produced over this number with 65 yards and 54 yards in Weeks One and Two, and he also dropped about a 43-yard wide open TD pass against Washington and has 13 targets so far this season. Somehow, this number hasn’t gone up since Thursday when we recorded the OnTapBets show. It wouldn’t surprise me if that changes before kick off, so if you like it, get it as soon as you can.
Ryan Tannehill Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes Thrown (-109)
The Indianapolis Colts gave up two passing touchdowns to Matthew Stafford last week and four to Russell Wilson in Week One. Although it was the Derrick Henry show with three touchdowns last week, Ryan Tannehill threw for 347 yards. With only one passing touchdown on the season, I have to believe there’s some positive regression coming.
Kenyan Drake Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-112 on FanDuel): 🔒 LOCK OF THE WEEK 🔒
Bet. Rinse. Repeat. This number really stood out to me. On BetRivers, they have the line set at 26.5 receiving yards. Not only has Kenyan Drake smashed THAT number each of the last two weeks, but he’s also facing a team that leads the league in quarterback knockdowns per pass attempt. The Miami Dolphins have been getting decent pressure but not finishing sacks with only two so far. The best way to avoid sacks is to use your trusted receiving running back. Once again, I have Drake projected for at least 30 receiving yards. I’m okay taking the over at 26.5, but shop around and find the best number you can. This is my new lock of the week.
Bonus pick: T.J. Hockenson Anytime Touchdown (+185 on FanDuel)
Good luck, and let’s have another wonderful Sunday.