The weekend slate is back and this week I’m not getting cute like I did last weekend. Here’s Saturday’s picks.
Western Michigan at Buffalo (Buffalo +7)
Two top three teams in the MAC battle early on Saturday. Buffalo is 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games at home and I see that trend continuing. The two teams haven’t played each other since 2017, but Buffalo has covered in three of their last four matchups. The spread opened at 5.5 and has moved as high as 7.5 on some books. I simply like Buffalo here for their record ATS at home.
Louisville at Wake Forest (Under 63)
Louisville and Wake Forest have combined to go 7-1 on the under this season. Every Wake Forest game this season has gone under. Perhaps you could say these teams are due for an over. After all, the last four games between these teams have gone over, but Wake Forest is allowing just 14.3 points per game. Louisville has scored over 30 points in each of their last three games, resulting in wins, but I look for the Wake Forest defense to keep rolling on Saturday.
USC at Colorado (Colorado +7.5)
I don’t know what to make of USC. The Trojans are currently ranked No. 4 in the Pac-12 South at 2-2 after a terrible loss to Oregon State where they were 11-point favorites. They also lost to Stanford as 17.5-point favorites earlier this season. Colorado has played a tough schedule, losing to Texas A&M, Minnesota, and Arizona State. They are 1-3 ATS this season, but the Buffaloes have covered the spread in each of their last five home games against teams from California. Colorado needs a big conference win after getting bullied last week by Arizona State. I like them to at least hang around behind the energy of a home field advantage.
Cincinnati at Notre Dame (Cincinnati -1.5, Under 50.5)
Notre Dame and Wisconsin gave us exactly what we were expecting for all but the last two minutes of the game at Soldier Field last week. The game was not fun to watch unless you love defense and punts. The under was a lock until Graham Mertz decided to throw two painful-to-watch pick-six’s to secure the over. It was one of the worst bad beats from the weekend. This week, Desmond Ridder comes to South Bend, however. Two undefeated teams will face off in a pretty even matchup. The over is 5-2 combined for both teams, but I love the under in this matchup because the Bearcats quarterback play is much better than Wisconsin’s.
Each of Cincinnati’s last six road games against ranked teams have gone under. I’m not sure the Irish will be able to maintain pace with the Bearcats. Their ground attack will be crucial if that is to happen. This will be Cincinnati’s first real test of the season. The spread has moved as high as three points, but money has recently came in on Notre Dame. At 1.5 points, I’ll take the team with the better quarterback.
Syracuse at Florida State (Syracuse +5.5, Syracuse +175, Under 51)
The under is 6-2 combined for these teams this season. Each of Syracuse’s last six games against teams from Florida have gone under the points total. The last four games between these two teams have gone under. The under has hit in Florida State’s last three games.
Meanwhile, Syracuse is 3-1 ATS this season, including an outright win over Liberty last week as 6.5 point underdogs. Florida State is 0-4 overall and 1-3 ATS, with their one cover against Notre Dame. I love the Orange as road underdogs this week.
Ohio State at Rutgers (Rutgers +14)
Good teams win, great teams cover. The Scarlet Knights have been one of the best ATS this season, currently undefeated in that aspect. Now, they host the Buckeyes in one of the biggest games of the season thus far for their squad. Rutgers was 20-point underdogs last week at Michigan, but only lost by a touchdown. Rutgers has covered the spread the last two games in this matchup. Ohio State has rebounded since their loss to Oregon, but against Akron and Tulsa. This will be a real test for the Buckeyes and most importantly quarterback CJ Stroud.
Ole Miss at Alabama (Over 80)
This is a huge total, but these offenses have been incredible to start the season. Four of the last five matchups between these two teams have gone over, including last season’s game where the total closed at 74. The over has hit in three of four games for Alabama this season. Nine of Ole Miss’ last 10 games against ranked teams have gone over. We hope everyone has fun and scores a lot of points Saturday afternoon.
Liberty at UAB (Liberty +2.5)
The Flames not only failed to cover 6.5 points against Syracuse, but lost outright. This week is a good week to get back on track. Liberty is 11-1 ATS in their last 13 games.
Kansas at Iowa State (Iowa State -34)
If you’ve been tailing all season, you know we fade Kansas until basketball season. Kansas is 1-13 ATS in it’s last 14 games. Iowa State is 1-3 ATS this season but they also haven’t played the worst program in college football.
Auburn at LSU (LSU -3)
Auburn is coming off a win at Georgia State, but one where they trailed by double digits at halftime. Auburn railed in the second half to win, but now they get LSU, a team that’s responded well after their loss to UCLA. LSU has covered the spread in each of its last 11 games in October at home. The Tigers want to be ranked next week and could do so defeating No. 22 Auburn.
That’s this weekend’s picks. Good luck to everyone and make sure you’re following OnTapBets on Twitter for more plays. You can also follow me on Twitter at CodyOnTap for more plays on Saturday as well.
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