Yikes. Maybe the only thing the NFL Week Three prop article was better than last week was Matt Nagy’s play-calling. Okay, maybe it wasn’t that bad. We did go 5-6 and nail the lock of the week pick. However, it could’ve been much better. Darius Slayton got injured and left the game. Justin Fields’ passing yards prop was a complete whiff. Also, Clyde Edwards-Helaire had a big game, but it was mainly on the ground and not through the air. Although he caught a touchdown pass, he only had nine receiving yards compared to 100 rushing yards.
Last week: 5-6
Season record: 13-13
Nonetheless, there’s no time to dwell on what could’ve been. It’s a new week and a new chance to pad our gambling accounts. Here are some of my favorite prop bets for Week Four.
Disclaimer: All betting odds are courtesy of BetRivers unless stated otherwise. All lines and odds mentioned are as of writing and subject to change.
Ryan Tannehill Over 204.5 Passing Yards (-115)
While both of Ryan Tannehill’s top targets will be out due to injuries, this number still feels low. Tannehill has only gone under this number twice in his last 10 regular season games. The New York Jets still don’t have a terrific passing defense. Also, something tells me Zach Wilson is about to have the best game of his young career, going up against Tennessee’s 22nd ranked passing defense in terms of DVOA. Factoring that in while considering the Jets might load up the box to stop Derrick Henry, Tannehill could be forced to throw more than we expect.
Michael Carter Over 7.5 Receiving Yards (-115 DraftKings)
How often are we going to see a player catch two passes for only five receiving yards? That’s what Michael Carter had last week. Now, his Over/Under for receiving yards is set at 7.5 on some sites, and he’s been the more effective of the two running backs the Jets have been using as a receiver between him and Ty Johnson. Carter has caught five of his eight targets on the season, has been targeted at least twice in every game, and three times in each of the last two. Meanwhile, Ty Johnson has only caught two of his eight targets on the season. Carter has also been getting on the field more than he was the last two weeks. So, I’m thinking the Jets will start to use Carter more as a receiver than Johnson moving forward.
Chris Carson Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
The 49ers have struggled against the run so far this year with 4.7 yards per carry allowed (sixth-worst in the NFL). In five games against the 49ers, Chris Carson has averaged 82.8 yards per game. He’s averaging 67.3 yards per game this year and 4.9 per attempt. After playing only 43 percent of the team’s offensive snaps last week, I’m willing to bet Pete Carroll gets him on the field and more involved in this divisional matchup. Despite not seeing the field as much, Carson remained the only running back to carry the ball more than two times with 12 carries.
Miles Sanders Over 56.5 Rushing Yards (-115 PointsBet)
Miles Sanders’ rushing yardage total is set incredibly low due to the Eagles’ unwillingness to use him much in their blowout loss to the Dallas Cowboys last Monday Night. However, if the Eagles have any chance of pulling off an upset over the Kansas City Chiefs, they will need to run the ball effectively and keep Patrick Mahomes off the field. Working in their favor, the Chiefs rank dead last in rush DVOA and have allowed the second-most yards per carry this season (5.4). Expect Miles Sanders to get far more than the two carries he received against the Cowboys
Antonio Gibson Over 11.5 Receiving Yards (-120 DraftKings)
If Antonio Gibson’s 73-yard touchdown reception last week didn’t prove that he’s more than capable of handling a bigger role in Washington’s passing game, I don’t know what will. Enough of this J.D. McKissic nonsense. It’s time to let him shine.
Will Fuller Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-110 DraftKings)
Will Fuller made his Miami Dolphins debut last week, hauling in three catches for 20 yards on six targets. The important part is the targets, and he only played 61 percent of the offensive snaps, likely working on a snap count in his first game back. As he gets his conditioning back and more acclimated in this offense, the yards will follow. Jacoby Brissett only needs to look his way a few times for this to pay off against the 29th ranked Indianapolis Colts pass DVOA unit.
Mike Davis Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-113): 🔒 LOCK OF THE WEEK 🔒
Mike Davis doesn’t get the credit he deserves as a multi-faceted running back. He’s a solid running back, averaging nearly four yards per carry on the ground and he stepped into the Christian McCaffrey role for the Carolina Panthers last season, seamlessly. Through three weeks of football, the Washington Football Team hasn’t lived up to the hype on the defensive side of the ball. Last season, they were tied for fifth in fewest points per game allowed. This year, they have given up the fourth-most. A lot of that can be chalked up to their opponents as well. Despite the points they’ve allowed this season, Washington is second in hurry rate and fourth in pressure rate.
Furthermore, they’ve gone up against good quarterbacks, who are mobile and deliver the ball quickly, which has limited them to only six sacks. Matt Ryan is aging and he’s never been a mobile quarterback. If the Falcons are going to stand a chance against this defensive line, he’s going to have to get rid of the ball quickly, making use of running back screens and short dump-off passes. I expect Davis to get fed in the passing game. He’s averaging over five targets per game and has yet to have less than 20 receiving yards in a game thus far.
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