I have built an excel database, free for all to use, detailing the NFL betting trends for every head coach since 2018. This document (available for viewing and use via Google Drive) details every current NFL Head Coach’s performance ATS, Over/Under, and straight-up. This bad boy is free to use. All that we ask is that you jump on twitter and follow @OnTapBets, and subscribe to give the podcast a listen. On the honor system. Don’t let me down, we are just out here trying to bring winners to you.
**IMPORTANT: Once you open the document, make sure to go to “File” then “Make a Copy”. Once you do that, the file should be fully functional for your use.
NFL Betting Overview
This is the only sheet available in the workbook. You can see the overview for each NFL head coach, with their record ATS as home or road, and favorite or dog. As the user, you have three options to choose from on this sheet.
- Choose the team you want to view from the dropdown box.
- Select whether that team is the betting favorite or underdog.
- Indicate whether they are the home team or away team.
At this point, the database will return to you the head coach’s record against the spread, on the money line, and for hitting the over in the selected situation.
Results by Head Coach
Say that I was thinking about placing an NFL bet on the Buffalo Bills. Let’s imagine that the Bills are favorites this week, on the road. I would select “BUF” for team, then indicate that they are favorites on the road.
The database will tell me that since 2018 (when Sean McDermott was hired as head coach) the Bills are 6-3 ATS as road favorites. This is a win percentage ATS of 66.7%. Straight up, McDermott is 8-1, for a win percentage of 88.9%. The team is 4-4-1 in hitting the over. This is an over rate of 44.4%. But, including the one time they pushed, the break even rate is 55.6%. The break even rate has the same concept for ATS. However, no break-even rate was included for money line, since ties are such a rare occurrence.
If a head coach was hired after 2018, this only captures that teams record since the head coach took over. For example, the Jets records are only representative of the four games coached by Robert Saleh.
Using head coach records ATS or otherwise is not foolproof. But it can be a key metric to consider in making your NFL Bets. Feel free to use this tool as you see fit. I am planning to update this sheet weekly after all bets have closed for each week. Currently, it is accurate through Week Four of the 2021 NFL season. Also, be on the lookout for next weeks Bears vs Raiders preview.
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