Well, guess what? Another player I picked to do well and beat his prop line last week got injured during the game. Brutal. I’m getting close to being the Madden NFL video game cover player curse. When I write about a player, an injury seems to follow soon after. Let’s hope that’s not the case this week and all of our prop bets strike gold.
Last Week: 2-5 — YUCK
Season: 15-18 — Ditto
Despite what the record says, I still look at most of the previous bets and feel like the process was right. We’re getting some bad variance mixed with some bad luck right now. Nonetheless, I’m hopeful for this week and I feel good about the picks. Let’s make some cash.
Disclaimer: All betting odds are courtesy of BetRivers unless stated otherwise. All lines and odds mentioned are as of the time of writing and subject to change.
Jameis Winston Over 0.5 Interceptions (+100)
Jameis hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 2 against the Carolina Panthers. The Washington Football team has just one interception on the season. Only two teams had fewer (zero) coming into Sunday, the New York Jets and the Atlanta Falcons.
So, why do I like this bet? Both sides are due! Jameis threw a league-high 30 interceptions in 2019. I have a hard time believing Sean Payton’s coaching and a more simplified offense has cured all of his past tendencies. I’ve seen him throw up some questionable passes that he’s gotten the better side of. I’m putting money on him throwing a pick today.
Odell Beckham Jr. Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
OBJ is really the only main pass-catching option the Browns have with Jarvis Landry out of the lineup. They have Rashard Higgins and Donovan Peoples-Jones, but they aren’t heavily relied on. After only two catches for 27 yards against Minnesota last week, I expect Beckham Jr. to make a bigger impact here. Baker Mayfield still targeted OBJ seven times, bringing his target total up to 16 in the two games he’s played. Smash the over.
Jakobi Meyers Over 5.5 Receptions (-114)
You can find it on other sites at plus-money, but this is a bet I love. Meyers is averaging over 10 targets per game and has at least 12 in each of the last two. On top of that, he has caught at least eight passes in his last two games. If Meyers can do it again, he’ll be the first Patriots wide receiver to reach that mark in three consecutive games since Julian Edelman in 2016.
Mike Gesicki Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
With DeVante Parker out this week and Will Fuller on the injured reserve list, Gesicki could be peppered by Jacoby Brissett. Last week, on 30 pass attempts, he looked Gesicki’s way six times and they connected on five of those for 57 yards and a touchdown. In Week 3, Gesicki caught 10 of 12 targets for 86 yards. Tampa Bay has allowed the third-most receptions to the tight end position this season. I’m guessing Gesicki once again goes over this number.
Ezekiel Elliott Over 77.5 Rushing Yards (-112): 🔒 LOCK OF THE WEEK 🔒
We know how explosive the Dallas Cowboys’ passing attack can be with Dak Prescott under center. However, they run the ball at the fifth-highest rate in the league — 46.97 percent of their offensive plays are runs. And who is getting the bulk of the work? You guessed it, Zeke. In each of the past two games, Elliott has rushed for at least 95 yards and a touchdown. As seven-point favorites at home, the game script is favorable for him to get plenty of work again, grinding out the clock. Another positive, the New York Giants are 26th in Rush DVOA.