I was unable to post an article for last Saturday’s college football slate, but if you tailed my picks on Twitter, you went 15-10 last weekend. For the season, the record sits at 94-74-5. Let’s keep the momentum going beginning with picks for Thursday and Friday.
Tulane at SMU (SMU -13.5, Over 70.5)
Tulane looked like a team on the rise after a close game against Oklahoma earlier in the year, but the 1-5 Green Wave have been free-falling since. SMU comes into this week a perfect 6-0, going 4-2 ATS and scoring 30 or more points in every game. I was all over Houston putting points up a few weeks back against Tulane and it paid off. I see it happening here again.
SMU is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games as a favorite and overall. Meanwhile, the Green Wave are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall and against teams with a winning record. The over is 6-1 in Tulane’s last seven games overall and as an underdog. The over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between these two teams.
Louisiana-Lafayette at Arkansas State (Under 70)
The Ragin’ Cajuns as road underdogs were an absolute lock last week.
With their win over App State, they moved to 5-1 overall. Meanwhile, Arkansas State is 1-5, but are 3-3 ATS and one of their wins are at home. I’m choosing to avoid the 18-point spread. However, the Ragin’ Cajuns are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings if you so choose to play.
I do like the under in this game though. Last week, the Ragin’ Cajuns got a big lead on App State and burned a ton of clock. Their defense forced App State into long drives when they couldn’t afford it as well, missing the 54.5 total by just a few points. In a game where one is clearly more favorable than the other, I’m not sure Arkansas State can put the points up to reach 70.
The under is 4-1 in the last five meetings and 5-1 in the last six meetings at Arkansas State. Four of the Ragin’ Cajuns’ last five road games have gone under.
Florida Atlantic at Charlotte (Charlotte +7)
The spread opened at five points and has moved to seven with most of the money coming in on FAU. I’m not sure why when looking at the numbers. Charlotte is undefeated at home this season and 4-1-1 ATS. The 49ers are also 4-1 ATS in their last five home games as an underdog. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Add on 74 percent of the money going toward Charlotte and I’m pretty convinced the books got this one wrong.
San Jose State at UNLV (Under 44, UNLV +4)
San Jose State has burned me twice now on the over, most recently last week. I will not be fooled for a third time. The total opened at 46.5 and has dropped down to 44. Mountain West after dark is the complete opposite of PAC-12 after dark and the trends say it all. The under is 7-1 in San Jose State’s last eight conference games and 5-1 in the Spartans’ last six road games. In closing, the under is 13-3 in the Spartans’ last 13 games overall. This game will not be fun to watch if you like offense.
UNLV was on the verge of upsetting Fresno State just a few weeks ago but overall are not a good football team as they are still winless this season. San Jose State has dropped two straight, but as a four-point favorite, I tend to lean towards UNLV. Four of the Rebels losses have all been by single digits. The home team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings which bodes well for UNLV. They’re 8-1-1 in their last 10 Thursday night games and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and as an underdog. Perhaps the Rebels finally get their first win of the season tonight.
Middle Tennessee at UCONN (UCONN +15.5)
It finally happened. Connecticut finally won a football game. It really happened. UCONN won as home underdogs against Yale last week. As embarrassing as that sounds, you really can’t hit rock bottom much harder if you’re part of the Huskies program.
Now they host Middle Tennessee as 15.5 point underdogs at home. Despite being 0-4 on the road, the Blue Raiders are double-digit favorites. This is a game you bet, but don’t turn on. I’m rolling with the Huskies to hang tough against another bad team. UCONN is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as a home underdog.
Colorado State at Utah State (Colorado State +3.5)
Utah State is just 1-2 at home this season and the Rams from Colorado State are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Aggies. Utah State barely beat a bad UNLV team, which I just mentioned is not very good, and before that game they lost to BYU and Boise State at home. Colorado State is not Boise State or BYU, but those games were all double-digit losses. Utah State is just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall. I like the Rams to hang around.
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