Connect with us

Bears

Bears vs. Steelers: A Comprehensive Guide

Take a dive into the stats, betting lines, and matchup analysis before the Bears vs. Steelers Week 9 meeting in the Steel City.

Bears Steelers

Bears vs. Steelers features two of the oldest franchises in the NFL. The Bears own a record of 19-7-1 against the Steelers, having won the last three meetings. The two franchises are still family-owned, and the ties between the McCaskey’s and the Rooney’s are very strong.

In fact, when Virginia Halas began dating Ed McCaskey, her father George Halas expressed doubts. Halas asked his NFL pals Bert Bell (owner of the Eagles) and Art Rooney (owner of the Steelers) to head to McCaskey’s college campus in Pennsylvania and “inspect” McCaskey.

Anyways, now that the trade deadline has come and gone without any real changes for the Bears, it is time to focus on the Steelers. And who you might want the Bears to hire as their next head coach, considering their 3-5 record.

But first, I am throwing one out there for the Yinzers with a fun fact: Pittsburgh, New England, and Oakland all have the same blood type. AB Negative. I will see myself out now.

Bears vs. Steelers Betting Lines

Bears Steelers Betting Spread
Moneyline and Spread as of 11/4/2021

In the above graphic, I have noted the spread and the projected spreads according to my two models, PFF, and 538’s two models for Bears vs. Steelers. Why use two models from one source? I like to use multiple models to crosscheck each other. The more models that say something is a good bet, the more assurances you get. That’s what all of us gamblers want, assurances.

Bears vs. Steelers Cover History

Graph showing the Bears cover history as road underdogs since the start of 2018.They have only covered in 2 of their last 9 games as road dogs.
The Bears have only covered in two of their last nine games as Road Dogs

In the graph above, the blue line represents the expected point differential based on the spread. For example, if the spread is CHI +7, the blue line will have a data point at -7, since the Bears are expected to lose by seven.

The orange line represents the actual result. Therefore, any data point above the blue line means that the Bears covered the spread and any data point below the blue line means the Bears did not cover. We can see that this Bears team has only covered the spread in two of their last nine games as road dogs.

In Matt Nagy’s tenure as head coach of the Bears, he has compiled a record against the spread (ATS) of 27-31. As an underdog, Nagy’s teams are 13-17 ATS. On the road, his teams are 12-16 ATS. Combining those two factors, Nagy’s teams have a record of 7-10 ATS as a road dog. This represents a cover rate of 41%, versus the league average cover rate of 56%.

“Good coaches win. Great coaches cover the spread.”

Graph showing the Steelers cover history as home favorites since the start of 2018. They have failed to cover as home favorites in their last six attempts.
The Steelers have failed to cover in their last six games as home favorites.

We can see that this Steelers team has not covered the spread in their last six games as home favorites. Additionally, they have straight-up lost four of their last six games as home favorites.

Since 2018, Mike Tomlin’s team has compiled a record against the spread (ATS) of 30-25-1. As a favorite, Tomlin’s teams are 13-21-1 ATS. At home, his teams are 15-14 ATS. Combining those two factors, Tomlin’s teams have a record of 9-14 ATS as a home favorite. This represents a cover rate of 39% versus the league average cover rate of 43.8%.

Fun fact for you; Mike Tomlin is 0-3 in his head coaching career against the Bears.

Bears vs. Steelers Team Stats

Chart showing the Bears vs Steelers NFL ranks in DVOA, EPA per Play, and Success Rate. The two offenses are extremely similar in ranks as the Bears rank 27th and the Steelers rank 28th. On defense, the Bears rank 17th while the Steelers rank 12th.
The two teams are very similar, with limited offenses and talented but not elite defenses.

The final ranking for each unit is the average of DVOA, EPA per Play (10% win probability filter), and success rate. DVOA is a metric developed by Football Outsiders that measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to the league average based on situation and opponent. Meanwhile, EPA per Play is a stat that aims to measure the value of individual plays in terms of points using historical data for down, distance, and field position. Finally, success rate measures the percentage of plays that generate positive EPA on offense or a negative EPA on defense.

The Bears and Steelers rank similarly on offense. Both teams have struggled to pass the football with much efficiency. However, both teams have been able to find success in the ground game. Defensively, the teams are not quite as similar. While both teams have been middle-of-the-pack in defending the pass, the Steelers have held up that same standard against the run. On the other hand, the Bears have struggled to stop the run, especially of late.

Steelers Offensive Overview

Play-Caller: Matt Canada

Personnel Groupings: RB-TE [WR]

  • 1-1 [3WR]: 73%
  • 1-2 [2WR]: 19%
  • 2-2 [1WR]: 2%

Third Down Conversion Rate: 40.9% (14th)

Red Zone TD Conversion Rate: 55.6% (23rd)

Explosive Play / Pass / Run Rate: 8% (28th) / 7% (28th) / 10% (20th)

Score %: 33.3% (24th)

Turnover %: 9.3% (23rd)

Image of a football field detailing pass frequency and EPA per Play by field position. The Steelers are fairly pass happy until they reach the red zone.
Plays, drop back frequency, and EPA per Play by Field Position for the Steelers Offense.

Steelers Offensive Scouting Report

The Steelers’ offense averages 19 points per game. They have scored 20 or more points just three times this season. After the 2020 season, Matt Canada received a promotion from QB coach to Offensive Coordinator, taking over for Randy Fichtner. After spending many years as a coach in the college ranks, Canada made his jump into the NFL in 2020 as the Steelers QB coach. A few staples for Matt Canada include pre-snap motion, play-action usage, and pulling blockers in traditional power run concepts. That is not to say that he lacks creativity, as Canada is always searching for new formations and motions to confuse defenses. We can expect to see many different shifts, motions, and formations throughout the contest.

At QB, the Steelers are trotting out 39-year-old Ben Roethlisberger. When protected well, he can still stand in the pocket and pick apart the defense. However, he cannot move very well, does not like pre-snap motion or play-action, does not excel in the RPO game, and lacks the arm strength to attack vertically. Therefore, the offense needs to be tailored to Ben’s strengths, creating an environment where match-ups are of the utmost importance. Against Cleveland last week, they used heavy sets and under-center passing calls in order to attack the middle of the field.

Najee Harris is their bell-cow back, playing 84% of offensive snaps. Harris ranks fourth in the NFL in rushing attempts and second in touches. When taking a handoff, his specialty is running between the tackles in a power blocking scheme. 

Up front, the Steelers’ offensive line seems to be finding their footing after some early-season struggles. When run blocking, they lean on power blocking and inside zone schemes. While the OL has struggled with pass protection, it is not evident in the numbers. This is because Roethlisberger gets the ball out faster than any other QB, helping his OL in the process.

Although the Steelers have stayed in 11 personnel for most of the season, they played out of heavier packages for most of last week’s game against Cleveland. The Steelers could be gearing toward more two TE sets than we have seen early in the season, which would fit Matt Canada’s history.

Rookie TE Pat Freiermuth is having a strong rookie season. On the outside, the combination of Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool makes for a strong WR core. Juju Smith-Schuster remains injured and will not see the field this week. Both Johnson and Claypool are big-play threats, but both are bogged down by Roethlisberger’s receding arm strength.

Positional Breakdown

Runningback Najee Harris ranks 15th out of 56 qualifying runningbacks. The Steelers have two WR's in the top half of the NFL (Johnson and Claypool). THeir rookie tight end ranks 18th among 43 tight ends. THe offensive line is top half of the NFL. Ben Roethlisberger is one of the worst rated QBs in the NFL.
Position Ranks among NFL starters for the Steelers expected starters.

The “Pos. Rank” uses multiple position-specific stats to generate a relative ranking for each player at their position. The percentile is simply a representation of their rank. For example, Najee Harris Ranks 15th out of 56 qualifying RB’s. This results in a percentile of 73% (MATH = 1 – (15/56)). In the right-most column, you can see the stats used to generate the ranking.

Offensive Line stats represent the entire unit, rather than any individual player. I believe that it is just too subjective of a stat to place statistical blame on individuals without knowing their assignments.

Steelers Defensive Overview

DC: Keith Butler

Base: 3-4

Blitz %: 20.1% (27th)

3rd Down Conversion Rate: 37.1% (9th)

Red Zone TD Conversion Rate: 47.6% (5th)

Explosive Pass / Run Rate: 8% (11th) / 13% (27th)

Score %: 38.2% (15th)

Turnover %: 7.9% (27th)

Steelers Defensive Scouting Report

Do you see that blitz rate? We are talking about the Steelers, right? Blitzburgh, no more. In 2020, the Steelers were one of the most aggressive teams in the NFL when it came to blitzing. They brought five-plus rushers on 44.1% of all defensive snaps. So far in 2021, they have cut that rate in half.

Through the first half of the season, the Steelers’ defense has shown little resemblance to the philosophy they’ve deployed for the majority of the past three decades. In order to be less predictable, the Steelers’ defense has pulled back on their blitz-heavy tendencies. Although, they still have the blitz packages in their back pocket, as shown in their game against Seattle. Basically, they take it on a week-by-week basis, and one would expect them to come after a rookie QB with a porous offensive line.

The Steelers’ defensive line has missed the presence of Tyson Alualu, who is on IR. Due to multiple interior defenders being placed on IR, the Steelers do not boast the same depth they are typically used to having here. Regardless, Cameron Heyward and TJ Watt remain as two of the top defensive players in the NFL. This defense’s strength is still in their front seven. But the limited availability of depth up front impacts their ability to stop the run the way they did in previous years.

Devin Bush, despite having a down year statistically, is still a playmaker at the LB position. Flanking him is Joe Schobert, who has had no problem fitting in as a thumper in the Steelers defensive front.

On the back end, Joe Haden remains a reliable man coverage CB. Aside from him, the Steelers have question marks at the other CB spot as well as in the nickel. Both Cameron Sutton and Tre Norwood have been vulnerable this year. Behind them at the safety position, Minkah Fitzpatrick is an absolute ballhawk who is dangerous when on the field. The QB needs to find Fitzpatrick before every snap and be aware of where he is going.

Positional Breakdown

Cameron Heyward is the 2nd ranked interior defender in the NFL. TJ Watt is the 10th ranked edge defender. Joe Schobert is the 23rd ranked linebacker. Although other defenders here fall to the bottom half of the league, they are more talented than their stats this year.
Position Ranks among NFL starters for the Steelers expected starters.

The “Pos. Rank” uses multiple position-specific stats to generate a relative ranking for each player at their position. The percentile is simply a representation of their rank. For example, Cameron Heyward ranks second among 81 qualifying iDL players. This results in a percentile of 98% (MATH = 1 – (2/81)). In the right-most column, you can see the stats used to generate the ranking.

Bears vs. Steelers Injury Report

Bears Steelers Injury Report
Bears vs. Steelers Injury Report

Summary

Bears vs. Steelers is most likely going to be ugly for everyone involved. The Bears’ offensive scheme is broken. The Steelers’ offense is broken. Both defenses are talented but have some large holes at key spots.

There is an upside for the Bears with Justin Fields having the opportunity to stack good games on top of each other. Despite Pittsburgh’s history of winning as a home favorite, I am taking the young QB this week.

Ultimately, this seems like a very winnable game for the Bears if they can keep Fields upright, assuming that at least Eddie Jackson will be back on the grass. If Jackson is not out there, I think the Steelers might pick apart the Bears’ defense since they seemed to have a hard time disguising their intentions without him. I am hoping to see Fields build off last week’s strong showing. I would expect the Steelers to spy Fields often due to how many yards he picked up on the ground last week. However, the Bears should be able to use that to open the passing game more.

Prediction: 

CHI: 24
PIT: 20

Bonus Points

Image of a football field detailing pass frequency and EPA per Play by field position.
Plays, drop back frequency, and EPA per Play by Field Position for the Bears Offense.
The only Bears player to rank in the top half of NFL starters in Darnell Mooney.
Position Ranks among NFL starters for the Bears expected offensive starters.
Khalil Mack, RObert QUinn, Roquan Smith, Alec Ogletree, and Jaylon Johnson all rank in the top half of NFL starters.
Position Ranks among NFL starters for the Bears expected defensive starters.

Tweets of the Week

Look at how much fun we are having.
Just in case you didn’t get enough, here is some more fun for you!
Fields’ speed is fun, too!

Follow On Tap Sports Net on social media!

Click to comment
Subscribe
Notify of
guest

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

0 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

Listen To Bears On Tap Podcast

BET WITH BETRIVERS ILLINOIS

Advertisement Beer and Bourbon Box 300x250

More in Bears