It’s been a few weeks since I was able to write out some picks, but if you’ve been following @OnTapBets on Twitter, you haven’t missed what I and the rest of our crew have been putting out.
I currently sit at 130-110-5, finishing even the last three weeks. This week I’m going to try to keep it simple.
Louisville at Duke (Under 59)
The Cardinals have played teams with winning records the last six games but now get a Duke team that resembles nothing of its basketball program.
While Duke has nothing but pride to play for, Louisville is still hoping to become bowl eligible. This is their best chance to get to that goal with their rival Kentucky awaiting next week.
Louisville stomped Syracuse last week, 41-3, and their defense is coming in very confident against a bad Blue Devils team. That said, both teams are coming in on a short week.
Louisville ranks No. 22 in rushing yards per game (201.3). I expect the Cardinals to run the ball and control the time of possession. With how bad Duke is, there’s no telling what we will see Thursday night.
The under is 5-0 in Louisville’s last five games as a favorite and 10-3 overall.
Southern Miss at LA Tech (LA Tech -15.5)
Southern Miss surprisingly played tough against UTSA last week, but that won’t stop me from betting against them on a short week, especially when they are 1-9 and 2-8 ATS.
LA Tech isn’t much better, but Southern Miss has been an abysmal away team this season. They have a 0-5 record, including 1-4 ATS, on the road.
The Bulldogs’ offense averages 393 yards per game of total offense and ranks fourth in Conference USA in passing yards (273.8). On a short week, I don’t see Southern Miss keeping up.
The Golden Eagles are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.
Arizona at Washington State (Arizona +15, Over 52.5)
Similar to Louisville, Washington State is one win away from becoming bowl eligible. Despite losing head coach Nick Rolovich and four assistants for not complying with the state COVID-19 vaccine mandate, the Cougars have responded positively. They are 1-2 without them but own a win over Arizona State and only lost by two points to a ranked BYU squad. They’re coming off a 14-point loss to Oregon but now have a chance to end the season strong against Arizona and Washington.
Arizona recently snapped a 20-game losing streak but have played tough against the best in the PAC-12. They trailed by a touchdown or less entering the fourth quarter in contests with Oregon, Utah, UCLA, Washington, and USC. The Wildcats are no slouch.
Arizona is 4-0 ATS in their last four contests. Washington State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games. Something has to give here. I’ll take Arizona, a team with nothing to play for except spoiler over the team with more pressure to win — one that’s still going through a coaching transition. The over might be the better play as it is 5-0 in the last five meetings and 5-1 in the last six meetings at Washington State.
Air Force at Nevada (Nevada -1.5, Under 52.5)
Nevada is coming off a heartbreaking two-point loss to San Diego State last week while Air Force defeated Colorado State by double digits en route to their first cover ATS since October 16.
The Wolfpack are 5-0 at home this season. They will go up against one of the toughest defenses in the nation as Air Force ranks fifth in the country in total yards per game allowed (288.3). Air Force is allowing just 184.1 passing yards per game to rank 14th in the country as well.
Nevada’s offense is better, and with the home crowd behind them, this feels like the safe play with Carson Strong under center for the home team. Air Force will keep it close and this total will not come close to 52.5.
The under is 17-5 in the Air Force’s last 22 games and 34-15 in the Wolfpack’s last 49 games as a favorite.
That’s today’s and tomorrow’s plays. Good luck and make sure you’re following @On Tap Bets on Twitter for more betting content from our crew.
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