Baylor vs. Oklahoma State (Baylor +6.5)
Oklahoma State comes off an emotional 37-33 comeback victory over Oklahoma last week, keeping their College Football Playoff hopes alive.
Baylor hopes to sure up a New Years Six bowl game. The two teams last met in early October, a game Oklahoma State won 24-14.
It was a defensive battle that saw the Cowboys take advantage of their opportunities more often than the Bears.
Baylor’s offense has been much better since then, scoring 27 points or more in six of their last seven games. That includes a double-digit win over Oklahoma. I like Baylor to at the very least keep it close this time around. The Cowboys had a big scare last week and bailed themselves out. It’s hard to beat a team twice though.
Baylor is 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games in December.
Houston vs. Cincinnati (Cincinnati -10.5)
These teams have one loss combined heading into the American Athletic Conference Championship game.
The public is heavy on Houston considering the pressure Cincinnati faces to secure a College Football Playoff spot. To me, it seems like a great place to zig while everyone else zags.
The Bearcats handled SMU fairly easily two weeks ago, winning 48-14. Cincinnati, in my opinion, isn’t facing any pressure. If anything, they are looking ahead. I like the Bearcats to roll to an AAC championship easily.
Houston is 0-5 in their last five games in December and 1-4 ATS in their last five as an underdog. The Cougars are also 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Bearcats.
Georgia vs. Alabama (Alabama +6.5, Under 51.5)
Anytime you can get Alabama plus the points, it’s extremely difficult to not take the Tide. I understand Auburn should have won last week, but Nick Saban knows his team has to play better and he knows this game has been in the making all season. The spread opened at three points and has moved to almost a touchdown.
Many are on Georgia, and it’s hard to disagree. The Bulldogs have been the best team in college football all season. They have the best defense in college football, including a rush defense, allowing just 79.4 yards per game good for fourth-best. Alabama has the third-best rush defense in the nation at 79 yards per game. Whichever team gets a consistent ground game going may be the difference.
It’s hard to bet against Saban at almost a full touchdown. The underdog in this matchup is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. I like the under in this matchup as it may take a half for both team’s offenses to get going.
Michigan vs. Iowa (Michigan -11)
Following the biggest win for the Wolverines in a decade, Michigan now has to get up for the Big Ten championship game in primetime.
Hassan Haskins is going to live in Ohio State fan’s nightmares for the next year after totaling 169 yards and five touchdowns on 28 carries. Michigan dominated the Buckeyes in the trenches and played well enough defense to build a lead on Ohio State.
Iowa is no slouch, however. The Hawkeyes were once ranked in the top four of the playoff rankings and have rebounded well since their dreadful losses to Purdue and Wisconsin, winning four straight. They did what they could to make the B1G Championship Game, and Wisconsin failed to take care of business last week against Minnesota.
I’m taking Michigan because Iowa’s best win this season was a 23-20 triumph over Penn State. They let Nebraska, Illinois, and Minnesota all hung around in recent weeks. I’m not sure how the Hawkeyes will play on neutral ground against a team that has played well all season. Michigan has been rolling on all cylinders since their disaster at Michigan State. Even still, Michigan got a big lead on the Spartans in that game, but they just failed to close. This spread is much higher if Michigan comes in undefeated.
The Wolverines are 10-2 ATS this season, including 4-0 in their last four games. Roll Wolverines.
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