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NFL Week 13 Prop Bets: 3 Bears Plays Highlight NFC North-Heavy Picks

The NFL Week 13 prop bets slate includes plays on David Montgomery, Jimmy Graham, and Jamaal Williams.

Gambling Picks
Photo: On Tap Sports Net

Normally, this is the part where I blab about last week’s successes or failures before diving into the picks for this week. Since I’m getting a late jump on writing the article, we don’t have time for that. You need time to get your prop bets in! With that said, I think I’ve found us some winners. Let’s get to it.

Disclaimer: All betting odds are courtesy of BetRivers unless stated otherwise. All lines and odds mentioned are as of the time of writing and subject to change.

David Montgomery Over 61.5 Rushing Yards (-110 on FanDuel)

David Montgomery Bears
Photo: Bruce Kluckhohn/AP

David Montgomery has been a little neglected over the last few weeks. In the Bears’ last game against the Lions, they threw the ball 39 times, which was only one fewer than their season-high of 40 pass attempts in Week 1. Monty hasn’t reached 20-plus carries since Week 4 of the season. Some of that was due to the injury that kept him out of action, but some of it is Matt Nagy’s eagerness to throw the ball.

Nagy might not be able to do that as much today, as the weather looks rainy and messy at Soldier Field in Chicago. I’m banking on a heavy rushing approach.

David Montgomery Over 15.5 Rushing Attempts (+106)

See above. This is a correlated bet with Montgomery’s rushing yards prop.

Even with the Bears throwing more last week, Montgomery still carried the rock 17 times. The weather will force the Bears to run more, and this is a positive EV bet with the plus-money attached to it.

Jamaal Williams Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-110 on FanDuel)

Jamaal Williams is one of the better backup running backs in the league. He gets steady work as a change of pace back behind D’Andre Swift. However, Swift will be inactive due to a shoulder injury he suffered on Thanksgiving against the Bears. During that game, Williams touched the ball 20 times, including five catches for 18 yards. The 18 yards are fewer than this number, but the Bears’ defense did a solid job of closing and not allowing him to gain more yardage.

Jared Goff is a check-down machine. When healthy, Swift is used a ton in the passing game because Goff doesn’t throw deep. The Lions also have a very limited receiving corps. Expect Williams to get closer to 30 yards than 20.

*Lock of the Week*

Jimmy Graham Over 11.5 Receiving Yards (-115 on DraftKings)

Jimmy Graham Bears
Photo: James Gilbert/Getty Images

This line is incredibly low, even for an old “washed up” tight end like Jimmy Graham. Starting to feel job security pressure and hearing the noise about not utilizing his tight ends enough, head coach Matt Nagy is finally starting to get them involved more. Over his last three games, Graham has at least three targets and 25 receiving yards in each, including a touchdown in the Thanksgiving matchup against the Detroit Lions.

The weather will likely be poor with rain and wind in the Chicago forecast today, but that’s all the more reason to utilize your tight ends over the middle. Additionally, the Bears are dealing with several injuries. Wide receivers Allen Robinson and Marquise Goodwin will not be in action, opening up more targets for Graham. One catch could put him over this number.

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