Feel the rhythm! Feel the rhyme! Get on up; it’s gambling time! I’m not sure if you can bet on bobsledding (that’s from Cool Runnings), but I’m pretty sure I have a lucky egg, mon. If you’re familiar with Tallysight, check out the college basketball leaderboard from this past week. I went above 60 percent against the spread and totals. Not to toot my own horn, but when you win, I win, so of course, I’m in a good mood ahead of Monday night’s action. Let’s keep it rolling and wipe away that disgusting Sunday NFL slate.
UMKC @ South Dakota State Over 141.5 (-108)
The Jackrabbits have been a fun team to watch this year if you’ve kept up with them. They are the most effective team in the country from three-point range, shooting 44.41 percent from deep. They also rank 23rd in KenPom’s adjusted tempo, playing a fast-paced brand of hoops. Guards Noah Freidel and Baylor Scheierman are each coming off a poor shooting night against Missouri State. The two combined to shoot 4-of-24 from the field (16.6 percent). However, they are each shooting above 40 percent from three-point range this season.
The Kangaroos can struggle at times offensively, but they should put up enough points in this matchup. The Jackrabbits rank 257th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. UMKC checks in at 57th in three-point field goal percentage. They should be able to shoot it a little behind guards Evan Gilyard II and Anderson Kopp. I liked the Over on the total when it sat at 144.5. I don’t understand why it dropped to 141.5, but I like it even more now.
Justin Fields Over 205.5 Passing Yards (-110 on FanDuel)
If the sportsbooks continue giving me reasons to play Justin Fields’ props, I will continue to take it. The Bears and Vikings square off at Soldier Field in Chicago tonight. The Bears have lost seven of their last eight games. Due to COVID, they will be extremely shorthanded in their secondary this evening, which means Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, and the gang could be in store for a huge night. If the Bears’ defense gets cooked early, they’ll need to throw early and often.
Also, Allen Robinson hasn’t been the playmaker we’ve come to know over the years. His absence isn’t ideal, but Fields should still succeed with his remaining weapons: Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, Jakeem Grant, Damiere Byrd, etc. Fields has gone over this number in two of his last three games.
If you’re a news buff, you saw the ridiculous article from ESPN about Fields today. Don’t tell me players aren’t aware of what’s out there and said about them. See Michael Jordan for proof. Fields isn’t Jordan, but he’s not Jimmy Clausen, either. I’m envisioning a big “Eff you” performance tonight.
Same Game Parlay: Justin Fields 200+ Passing Yards, David Montgomery 40+ Rushing Yards, Chicago Bears +21.5 (+134 on FanDuel)
See above for the reasoning behind the Justin Fields prop. With this, we are getting his total passing yards lowered. For Montgomery, this is as reasonable of a number as it gets, helping us get above plus-money odds. As long as Matt Nagy doesn’t completely abandon the run out of the gate, Monty should get to 40 yards rushing easily. He’s gone over this number in eight of his nine games this year. Furthermore, the Vikings rank sixth-worst in rush defense DVOA.
As for the third and final leg to this puppy, if the Bears can’t cover +21.5 with a head coach fighting for a future position at Presbyterian College or some other obscure place, I don’t know what to say. They’ll probably lose the game, but three touchdowns with the hook shouldn’t be too much to ask.
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