There are many question marks surrounding the Chicago Bears entering the 2022 season. What will the team see from second-year quarterback Justin Fields? How will new head coach Matt Eberflus fare in his first year on the job? But the question at hand today is whether or not the Bears will go over their win total of 6.5 games.
Now, the difference between lines on a full-season total, as opposed to a weekly game line, is that instead of the physical number moving on a season total, it will just be the price of the bet that changes.
As of this writing, the Chicago Bears’ odds on BetRivers to go over 6.5 wins are +115, which means a $100 bet will win you $115 if the Bears find a way to win seven games. The under, however, checks in at -141, meaning you must lay $141 to win $100 and hope that the Bears finish with six or fewer wins to cash your bet.
Bears 2022 Schedule Breakdown
When the whole gambling world zigs, we must zag. The Chicago Bears will win seven-plus games in the 2022 season, leaving the over as a nice even money future to look forward to this season.
The fact of the matter is the Bears just do not have that difficult of a schedule. Let’s break it down.
Every year, Bears fans categorize a few games on the schedule as auto losses. For this exercise, despite the Bears moneyline being in my bet slip that week, I will point those games out.
I can definitively say that the Bills, Packers (at least at Lambeau, and most likely at Soldier Field as well), Cowboys, and Patriots will hand the Bears losses in 2022. We can also add in an imminent split with the Vikings, and there may be a sweep potential.
If all hell breaks loose and the Bears lose all four of those divisional games against the Packers and Vikings, the over becomes significantly harder to achieve. But winning one or two of those games gives your bet a whole new life.
This next category of the schedule breakdown is “should win” games. These matchups include the Giants, Jets, Texans, Commanders, Falcons, and Lions (at least once, if not both times).
Hypothetically speaking, if the Bears take care of business in the aforementioned games, they will have reached seven wins. And this doesn’t include the one game of the season they steal as a seven-plus point underdog, or the one game they lose when expected to win.
We are not asking the Bears to win 10 or 11 games here, were simply need them to win seven games with a favorable schedule.
This tier of games includes ones the Bears could end up winning, but it’s not the end of the world — or the over — if they lose. These games include the 49ers, Eagles, Dolphins, and the previously stated attempted splits with the Packers and Vikings.
The Dolphins still have some identity issues with Tua Tagovailoa under center, and that game could end up coming down to the wire.
The Eagles are a team on the rise, but they are still prone to a stinker in which their offense moves the ball about as well as the Bears. I view that matchup as a one-possession game regardless of which team prevails.
The 49ers’ visiting Soldier Field in Week 1 helps put them on this list. If there is a week in which every team is especially vulnerable to an upset, it is Week 1. Furthermore, we don’t know if Trey Lance or Jimmy Garoppolo will be under center to open the season. These factors open a cloud of mystery surrounding the matchup.
As things currently stand, the Bears are 6.5-point underdogs in Week 1. This means the books have, for the most part, written it off as a 49ers’ win, even after the Bears almost took care of business against them last season.
Alternate Win Totals
Our friends over at BetRivers offer alternate Win Total lines as well. If you feel overconfident the Chicago Bears will finish under five wins or over 7.5 wins, there is extra juice for both of those bets.
If I had to put a ceiling on the 2022 Bears, I would push it to nine wins. But I don’t think the playoff bet would be worth it this year as the Bears do not figure to be one of the best seven teams in the NFC.
The national media and local media have written this team off. The sportsbooks and sharp bettors have shown us by the prices of these bets what they perceive will happen with the 2022 Chicago Bears. But a 6.5 win total with plus money value paired with many lower-third talent level teams on the schedule indicates the over is the right bet.
Justin Fields will improve on an otherwise shaky first season that was a byproduct of his former head coach having no trust or faith in the guy his team traded up to get. The Bears have a new hungry coaching regime that wants to instill its culture.
On the field, there are a few mid-level additions in the wide receiver room in Byron Pringle and N’Keal Harry. Expect Darnell Mooney to record another 1,000-yard season as his chemistry with Fields grows stronger. The combination of Khalil Herbert and David Montgomery in the backfield will help stabilize the Bears’ offense and put it in a better position than last season. Cole Kmet’s usage will increase this season and he could even become more of a red-zone target with the departure of Jimmy Graham.
Despite losing Khalil Mack, the defense still has more than enough to be competitive this season. While we can’t expect Robert Quinn to have another career year, we can count on Trevis Gipson to record double-digit sacks to help pick up the slack. The secondary got a boost with the additions of Kyler Gordon and Jaquan Brisker, both of whom could be Day 1 starters. This will allow a young unit to grow together with Eddie Jackson playing center field and presumably adding a couple more turnovers to his career total.
The 2022 Bears are not a great team, and they will not compete for a Super Bowl. However, they will be much more competitive than the “experts” project, and they will win over 6.5 games.
Will they make the playoffs? Most likely not. But +400 for them to sneak in as the seven seed is not terrible value. I will be betting the over for the Chicago Bears’ 2022 win total at 6.5 (+115) and may sprinkle the 7.5 at a smaller unit (+195). Now it’s your choice to tail or fade me!
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