It's time for a highly anticipated divisional showdown. That's right, the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers will meet for the 203rd time at Soldier Field today. As big of a rivalry as it is, this matchup has been extremely one-sided over recent years. Aaron Rodgers is a career 21-5 against the Bears, including the playoff game in 2011. What does all of that mean today? Nothing. Today is a new day. Any given Sunday, as the saying goes. The winner of this game will be in first place in the NFC North.
So what could make this matchup even better? How about some gambling sweats? I've dug in and come up with a few prop bets I like for this game. Let's make some cash.
Disclaimer: All betting odds are courtesy of BetRivers unless stated otherwise. All lines and odds are as of the time of publishing and subject to change.
Bears Team Total Over 19.5 (-115)
Sure, this might be a scary bet to place given how much of a struggle bus it can be at times for the Bears to put points on the board. However, since Bill Lazor has taken over playcalling, the Bears have scored at least 20 points in back-to-back games.
Furthermore, the Packers rank 20th in defense DVOA and have allowed 24.4 points per game. The Bears want to run the ball and grind the clock out, and they run the ball at the third-highest rate, 51.56 percent of plays to be exact. Luckily for them, the Packers rank 29th in rush defense DVOA. Also working in their favor, Green Bay cornerback Jaire Alexander is on injured reserve, which could open up the passing game.
I think the Bears can certainly put up 20 points to beat this number. It might be ugly, but 20 points are all we need. If this prop number reaches 20.5, I would stay away from it.
Davante Adams Under 97.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Adams is one of the best receivers in the league, hands down. With that said, he draws a tough matchup this week against a cornerback emerging as one of the best in the game, Jaylon Johnson. According to PFF, Johnson had the second-lowest passer rating allowed through five weeks (41.4). As a team, the Bears rank fourth in pass DVOA. As you might recall, when Johnson was drafted, he said the receiver he most wanted to face was Adams. He was also asked this week if he wants to follow Adams on Sunday. "I want to follow the best receiver in every game," Johnson said.
I'll put my money where Jaylon's mouth is because he's backed it up with his play so far this year. My projection for Adams has him at 6-7 catches for 65-80 yards. He'll get his fair share of production mainly because of how many targets he averages, but I don't see him putting up his fourth 100-yard receiving game just yet.
Cairo Santos Over 5.5 Total Kicking Points (-134)
Alright, time to get whacky. Given the struggles Mason Crosby and Evan McPherson had kicking in last week's Packers vs. Bengals game, I decided to consider this prop a little bit. Instead of going with Crosby's Under, which was the original direction I was thinking about pursuing, I found Santos had a better line.
In each of the last four games, Santos has gone over 5.5 kicking points. Given the Bears' struggles offensively, I'm guessing they will stall out in Packers' territory at least once or twice, allowing Santos to boot a couple of field goals. Heck, even one field goal and three touchdowns with extra points will do the trick. He's a perfect 7-for-7 on the season and 37-for-39 since taking over last season.
Aaron Jones Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-117)
This number is too low. Jones has surpassed this mark three times already and was game-scripted out of doing anything in Week 1 when the Packers lost 38-3 to the Saints. Jones probably won't go nuclear here, but 60-65 rushing yards isn't a tall task, especially if the Bears focus more on defending the passing game. Also, a key force in the middle of the Bears defensive line, Akiem Hicks, was held out of practice most of the week and is questionable to play. I would play this number up to 62.5 rushing yards.
Largest Lead of the Game Under 14.5 (-115 DraftKings) LOCK🔒
Maybe this is wishful thinking as a Bears fan, but I think the game will be closer than some are predicting and the Bears are very much live dogs to win. Unless Matt Nagy goes back to calling plays and the Bears get completely stonewalled, the defense should do enough against Aaron Rodgers to keep the game close.
Remember the last time these two teams played? The Bears got stomped 41-25 on Sunday Night Football. If you forgot, I assure you they didn't. I think the Bears cover the spread, but I don't think their offense will completely blow out the Packers if they wind up winning the game. Therefore, I don't see either team leading by more than two touchdowns at any point. Lock it in.