On January 8, 2018, the Chicago Bears hired Matt Nagy to be the 16th head coach in team history. Since that time, Nagy sports a 29-22 record as the leader of the team. However, that record excludes the playoffs.
In his first three full seasons as the HC, Nagy has seen two postseason appearances go by the wayside. Of course, in both trips to the playoffs, his teams came out empty handed. Nagy was picked by Ryan Pace (General Manager), George McCaskey (Chairman), and Ted Phillips (Glorified Accountant) to be an offensive genius and so far he's proven to be anything but that.
Due to his struggles as a play-caller and the overall offensive production, Nagy has come under heavy scrutiny. Especially from Bears fans and both the local and national media.
So, by digging deep into the numbers, we've gone through every point scored and it's corresponding scoring play from 2018 to 2020 to see how much of an impact Nagy has actually had. That said, here is what we've found.
Before We Start
The scoring has been broken down by units:
- Offensive points scored Touchdowns Two-Point Conversions
- Defensive points scored Touchdowns Safeties
- Special Team points scored Field Goals Extra Points Touchdowns
Not only that, but also determined is the percentage of points scored by each each unit respective to the total points scored. Furthermore, we have the average points per game scored by the Bears and each corresponding unit. Additionally, we've broken down the percentage of points scored by each play from it's respective units and it's per game average.
There will be a lot of numbers and percentages in this breakdown. So, buckle up and let's jump in.
During the 2018 season, the Chicago Bears scored a grand total of 436 points. Of which, 278 points came offensively (63.8%). 38 points came from the defense, which accounted for 8.7% of the total scoring. The remaining 120 points were provided by the special teams (27.5%). On average, the Bears scored 25.65 points per game. This breaks down to approximately 16.35 by the offense, 2.24 from the defense, and 7.06 from the special teams.
Additionally, the Bears had 124 scoring plays in 2018. Which were distributed as such:
- Offensive touchdowns: 45 (36.3%)
- Defensive touchdowns: 6 (4.8%)
- Special Teams touchdowns: 0 (0.0%)
- Safeties: 1 (0.8%)
- Field Goals: 26 (21.0%)
- Extra Points: 42 (33.9%)
- Two-Point Conversions: 4 (3.2%)
The Bears averaged 2.65 offensive touchdowns per game, while also averaging 0.35 defensive touchdowns, 0.06 safeties, 1.53 FGs, 2.47 extra points, and 0.24 two-point conversions. Overall, in 2018, they averaged 7.29 scoring plays per game.
During their 2019 season, overall production dipped significantly in all phases. As a whole, the Bears scored only 280 points in Nagy's second year. The offense scored a whopping 170 points (60.7%). While the defense only scored eight total points (2.9%). However, special teams saw an uptick in percentage from 2018 at 36.4%, but only managed 102 points.
On a per game basis, the offense scored 10.63 points. Meanwhile, the defense scored 0.50, and the special teams 6.38. As a whole, the Bears averaged 17.5 per game total, which is a far cry from their 25.65 per game in 2018.
In addition, the 2019 Chicago Bears only saw 82 scoring plays compared to the 124 in 2018. The 2019 scoring broke down as such:
- Offensive touchdowns: 28 (34.1%)
- Defensive touchdowns: 1 (1.2%)
- Special Teams touchdowns: 1 (1.2%)
- Safeties: 1 (1.2%)
- Field Goals: 23 (28%)
- Extra Points: 27 (32.9%)
- Two-Point Conversions: 1 (1.2%)
Futhermore, these are per game averages of each scoring play: offensive TDs (1.75), defensive TDs (0.06), special teams TDs (0.06), safeties (0.06), field goals (1.44), XPs (1.69), and 2-Pt conversions (0.06). Overall, they averaged 5.13 scoring plays per game.
In 2020, the Bears saw their scoring rebound from the down year on 2019. However, nothing like Nagy's first year in 2018. During the 2020 season, Chicago scored a total of 381 points. Offensively, they put up 238 of those points, which accounted for 62.5% of the scoring. On the other hand, the defense, for the second year in a row, contributed eight points (2.1%). Additionally, the special teams saw it's best year of the three years and logged 135 points and contributed for 35.4% of the scoring.
On average, in 2020, the Bears scored 22.41 points per game. Of which, the offense had 14.00. The defense added 0.47 and the special teams contributed 7.94.
Consequently, the Bears saw a rise in their overall scoring plays. In 2020, they had 111 total plays that resulted in points. That was 29 more plays than the previous year. Here is the distribution of those plays:
- Offensive touchdowns: 39 (35.1%)
- Defensive touchdowns: 1 (0.9%)
- Special Teams touchdowns: 1 (0.9%)
- Safeties: 1 (0.9%)
- Field Goals: 31 (27.9%)
- Extra Points: 36 (32.4%)
- Two-Point Conversions: 2 (1.8%)
Now, as far as 2020 is concerned, the Bears averaged 6.53 scoring plays per game. That number breaks down as such: offensive TDs (2.29), defensive TDs (0.06), special teams TDs (0.06), safeties (0.06), field goals (1.82), XPs (2.12), and finally 2-Pt Conversions (0.12).
Over the first three years of Nagy's tenure, the Bears have scored 1,097 points. This excludes 2021 as the season is not complete. Here is the full breakdown of where those points came from:
- Offense: 686 (62.5%)
- Defense: 54 (4.9%)
- Special Teams: 357 (32.5%)
Furthermore, over past three seasons, the Bears are averaging 21.94 points per game. Here is the breakdown of that:
- Offense: 13.72
- Defense: 1.08
- Special Teams: 7.14
Now, during this span, the Bears racked up 317 total scoring plays. The distribution is as follows:
- Offensive touchdowns: 112 (35.3%)
- Defensive touchdowns: 8 (2.5%)
- Special Teams touchdowns: 2 (0.6%)
- Safeties: 3 (0.9%)
- Field Goals: 80 (25.2%)
- Extra Points: 105 (33.1%)
- Two-Point Conversions: 7 (2.2%)
In addition, the Bears over three years averaged 6.34 scoring plays per game. Now, here is a look at the distribution of those 6.34 scoring plays per game:
- Offensive touchdowns: 2.24
- Defensive touchdowns: 0.16
- Special Teams touchdowns: 0.04
- Safeties: 0.06
- Field Goals: 1.60
- Extra Points: 2.10
- Two-Point Conversions: 0.14
Finally, here is a look how the Bears progress or regressed from year-to-year.
In conclusion, these numbers show a trend or a pattern to the Bears scoring. Now, whether or not they tell anyone anything about Matt Nagy the offensive genius is up to interpretation. But, the proof is in the pudding, or in this case, the numbers. Nevertheless, 2020 was by far the worst of the Nagy era. However, it remains to be seen if that holds up, as the 2021 season isn't off to a great start.