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Week 3 of the NFL season wasn’t my best showing. I got some things right and some things wrong. The article went 5-7, dropping just over two units. Nonetheless, if you’ve been following along, we are still well up for the season! Let’s recoup some of that cash and get back on track in Week 4.

1st Half Under 19.5 (-110)

It’s no secret both of these offenses struggle to put points on the board. Those struggles are magnified in the first half. The Giants are averaging three points per game in the first half, and the Bears are averaging 6.7 points in the first half.

Remarkably, the New York Giants haven’t scored a touchdown in the first half in their last seven games. The last time they did, former Bears quarterback Mike Glennon started against the Los Angeles Chargers. The second half might open up a bit after some halftime adjustments. However, we could see a rock fight early.

Total Game Sacks Over 5.5 (-130)

This game lines up to be a battle of the trenches. Pass blocking has been an issue for both teams. The Bears' offensive line is dead last in adjusted sack rate (18.1%). Meanwhile, the Giants are right behind them with the second-worst rate (13.3%).

Giants defensive coordinator Don Martingale likes to send exotic blitzes. The Giants blitz at the second-highest clip in the NFL. I'm guessing he'll cue up the pressure against a struggling young quarterback. Justin Fields is capable of making plays with his legs, and he'll escape pressure more times than not. However, he's holding on to the ball for far too long.

On the flip side, the Giants offensive line allowed five sacks to the Cowboys on Monday Night Football. Also, the Bears rank fourth in pressure rate. As of writing this, the game total is set at 38.5, which lends itself to more of a defensive battle. Expect the defenses to make some big plays on third down to force punts and field goals.

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Justin Fields Over 145.5 Passing Yards (-105)

I tried to take the over on Fields’ passing yards prop last week, and it didn’t work out so well. The Bears’ starting quarterback has struggled through three games so far, with the fewest passing yards per game (99 yards). Still, this number feels too low.

A lot of times, starting quarterbacks reach the 150-yard mark by halftime. The way things are looking for Fields, I doubt that happens today. However, most projection sites expect more than 145.5 for the game! There’s a reason the sportsbooks are setting his line closer to his weekly average. While it might be stressful, there’s value on the over once again.

Darnell Mooney Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Correlating with Fields’ struggles, Mooney hasn’t gotten going either. The Bears’ leading wide receiver from a year ago averages nine yards receiving this year. Mooney averaged 8.2 targets and 62 receiving yards per game last season, with Fields as his quarterback for a lot of the year.

Again, a lot of the projection sites show him racking up closer to 40 receiving yards against the Giants today. If Fields is going to hit his over on passing yards, he’ll need someone to throw the ball to. Getting Mooney going is a must for this offense. I’m banking on him being the guy they thought he was coming into the season. If the Giants bring the pressure I expect them to, Fields and Mooney should be able to connect in the quick passing game, which will allow Mooney to take advantage of his speed and get some yards after the catch.

Saquon Barkley Over 79.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Chicago is getting gashed on the ground this season, allowing the second-most rushing yards per game (157). Not having an incredible 3-technique disrupting play in the backfield is certainly proving to be an issue for the Bears, especially given their modified Tampa 2 defensive scheme.

Barkley looks healthy and explosive through three games. He’s gone over this number in two of the three, and the Giants should look to get him the ball early and often. While the Bears have allowed 157 rushing yards per game, Barkley will be the best running back they’ve faced to this point in the season. I could see him rushing for close to or more than 100 yards today.

Bears ML (+133)

While the Giants hold the home-field advantage, how much of an advantage is it? Since the 2017-18 season, the Giants are 13-29 at home. The spread implies that these two teams are fairly equal on a neutral field. Given the Giants' struggles at home, give me the Bears at that sweet plus-money value. If they can stop the run at all, they should be able to leave town victorious.

Follow me on Twitter @JoeyKnowsNothin for the rest of my picks. Good luck, and let’s win some cash.