Bears vs. Giants kicks off Sunday at noon, with Chicago entering as six-point home favorites. The Giants are coming off a blowout loss against Philadelphia, while the Bears had a comeback victory in Seattle. That was the Bears' second win in their last 10 games.
Bears vs. Giants Betting Lines
In the above graphic, I have noted the spread and the projected spreads according to my two models, PFF, and 538’s two models for Bears vs. Giants. Why use two models from one source? I like to use multiple models to crosscheck each other. The more models that say something is a good bet, the more assurances you get. That’s what all of us gamblers want, assurances.
Bears vs. Giants Cover History
In this graph, the blue line represents the expected point differential based on the spread. For example, if the spread is CHI +7, the blue line will have a data point at -7, since the Bears are expected to lose by seven. The orange line represents the actual result. Therefore, any data point above the blue line means the Bears covered the spread and any data point below the blue line means the Bears did not cover.
In Matt Nagy’s tenure as head coach of the Bears, he has compiled a record against the spread (ATS) of 29-36. As a favorite, Nagy’s teams are 14-15 ATS (48%; NFL average is 46%). At home, his teams are 15-17 ATS (47%; NFL Average is 47%). Combining those two factors, Nagy’s teams have a record of 9-7 ATS as a home favorite. This represents a cover rate of 56%, versus the league average cover rate of 44%.
“Good coaches win. Great coaches cover the spread.”
Since 2020, Joe Judge and the Giants have compiled a record against the spread (ATS) of 15-16. As an underdog, they are 15-13 ATS (54%; NFL average is 54%). On the road, they are 9-7 ATS (56%; NFL average is 53%). Combining those two factors, the Giants have a record of 9-6 ATS as a road dog since 2020. This represents a cover rate of 60%, versus the league average cover rate of 56%.
Bears vs. Giants Team Stats
The final ranking for each unit is the average of DVOA, EPA per Play (10% win probability filter), and success rate. DVOA is a metric developed by Football Outsiders that measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to the league average based on situation and opponent. Meanwhile, EPA per Play is a stat that aims to measure the value of individual plays in terms of points using historical data for down, distance, and field position. Finally, success rate measures the percentage of plays that generate positive EPA on offense or a negative EPA on defense.
Giants Offensive Overview
Play-Caller: Freddie Kitchens
Personnel Groupings: RB-TE [WR]
- 1-1 [3WR]: 63% (Pass Rate = 69%)
- 1-2 [2WR]: 27% (Pass Rate = 54%)
- 1-3 [1WR]: 3% (Pass Rate = 44%)
Play Action %: 31.4% (6th)
Screen %: 9.8% (21st)
3rd Down Conversion Rate: 38.1% (21st)
Red Zone TD Conversion Rate: 45.9% (31st)
Explosive Play / Pass / Run Rate: 7% (31st) / 5% (32nd) / 9% (26th)
Score %: 30.1% (28th)
Turnover %: 13.9% (9th Highest)
The “Pos. Rank” uses multiple position-specific stats to generate a relative ranking for each player at their position. The percentile is simply a representation of their rank. For example, Kenny Golladay Ranks 42nd out of 95 qualifying WRs. This results in a percentile of 56% (MATH = 1 - (42/95)). In the right-most column, you can see the stats used to generate the ranking.
Offensive Line stats represent the entire unit, rather than any individual player. I believe that it is just too subjective of a stat to place statistical blame on individuals without knowing their assignments.
Giants Defensive Overview
DC: Patrick Graham
Blitz %: 25.3% (16th)
3rd Down Conversion Rate: 41.1% (22nd)
Red Zone TD Conversion Rate: 52.4% (9th)
Explosive Pass / Run Rate: 7% (5th) / 12% (21st)
Score %: 41.4% (10th)
Turnover %: 12.3% (13th Highest)
The “Pos. Rank” uses multiple position-specific stats to generate a relative ranking for each player at their position. The percentile is simply a representation of their rank. For example, Leonard Williams Ranks eighth out of 93 qualifying interior defensive linemen. This results in a percentile of 91% (MATH = 1 - (8/93)). In the right-most column, you can see the stats used to generate the ranking.
Bears vs. Giants Injury Report