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What to Expect From Bears S Jaquan Brisker

Using statistics to project a range of outcomes for Jaquan Brisker in his rookie season with the Chicago Bears.
Bears Rookie Jaquan Brisker

Photo: Barry Reeger/AP Photo

In this series of articles, I will go through statistics to set fair expectations for the Bears draft picks. After kicking it off with Kyler Gordon last week, we are moving on to Jaquan Brisker. The Chicago Bears selected Jaquan Brisker out of Penn State with the 48th pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.

The Average Rookie Safety

Next, we are looking at the average rookie safety to be drafted within the top 100 picks who played 400+ snaps in their rookie season. This data is based on coverage, run defense, and playmaking stats from each player’s rookie season over the past five drafts (2017-2021).

Qualifying Rookie Safety Seasons since 2017

Qualifying Rookie Safety Seasons since 2017

The final three columns of data shown titled “Def. +/- %” is an attempt to show each players playmaking ability per snap. A “Positive Play” is an interception, forced fumble, tackle for a stop, forced incompletion, QB hit, hurry, sack, or batted pass. On the other hand, a “Negative Play” is either a missed tackle or a reception allowed that did not result in a tackle for a stop. 

So why should you care about this info? Because we can use this to project what a good, average, or poor season from Jaquan Brisker might look like.

Jaquan Brisker, Rookie Sensation

We are going to start with the upside case. In this scenario, Jaquan Brisker puts up one of the best rookie seasons by a safety since 2017.

Top 5 Rookie Safety seasons since 2017

Top 5 Rookie Safety seasons since 2017

Using the average stats of the top 5 rookie seasons since 2017, we project those numbers across 900 snaps. In this scenario, Brisker is targeted 29 times on the season, allowing 16 completions for 242 yards and three touchdowns while recording four interceptions. Among those targets, he forces seven incompletions along with 11 coverage stops on completions. In run defense, he makes 10 tackles for stops. 

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Jaquan Brisker, Solid Rookie Starter

Now, let us consider what average looks like. In this scenario, Jaquan Brisker performs at an average level for a rookie of his draft pedigree.

Median Rookie Safety Seasons since 2017

Median Rookie Safety seasons since 2017

Using the average stats of rookie safeties drafted in the top 100 picks (minimum 400 snaps), we project those figures across 900 snaps. In this scenario, Brisker is targeted 37 times, allowing 24 completions for 321 yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions. Among those targets, he forces five incompletions along with 12 coverage stops on completions. In run defense, he makes nine tackles for stops. 

The difference between a good rookie season and average is eight targets, eight completions, 79 yards, and two interceptions.

Jaquan Brisker, Future in Question

Finally, let’s see the downside case. In this scenario, Jaquan Brisker plays poorly, even for a rookie.

Bottom 5 Rookie Safety seasons since 2017

Bottom 5 Rookie Safety seasons since 2017

Using the average stats of the bottom 5 rookie seasons since 2017 (minimum 400 snaps), we project those numbers across 900 snaps. In this scenario, Brisker is targeted 52 times on the season, allowing 37 completions for 488 yards and six touchdowns while recording one interception. Among those targets, he forces three incompletions along with 14 coverage stops on completions. In run defense, he makes eight tackles for stops. Additionally, his missed tackle rate bloats up to 14.5%.

Summary

Projecting Jaquan Brisker Rookie Stats for each scenario

Projecting Jaquan Brisker Rookie Stats for each scenario

In summary, there is a wide range of outcomes for rookie safeties. While a bad rookie season does not doom any player (i.e. Budda Baker), you always want to see results early. I am interested to see how Jaquan Brisker can compliment Eddie Jackson in the Bears secondary.

Next time, we are on to Velus Jones Jr.