In this Edition of Bears Bets Breakdown, Lucas Perfetti (Bears On Tap) and the #OnTapBets experts (Ron Luce and DJ Musterd) break down their favorite props of the week in the Bears vs. Saints primetime matchup. It’s a glorious day to bet random statistics in a football game. The Bears need a big win and we hope you win some money! Without further ado, here are your staff favorites for Sunday afternoon:
Alvin Kamara O/U 61.5 Rush Yards
To kick this one off, we're going to have to go against the Bears. Alvin Kamara is a huge play waiting to happen. Kamara has gone over 61.5 in three of six games, and in one he fell just short at 58. Unfortunately, the Bears defense isn't as stout against the run as we're used to. The Bears defense is giving up 120 yards per game and we saw what Darrell Henderson did to them last week. It would be hard to take the under on this one. Alvin Kamara has big-play potential and could hit 62 yards on one play.
Pick: Alvin Kamara – Over 61.5 Rushing Yards
David Montgomery O/U 16.5 Carries
This is going to sound crazy but we like the over in this one. David Montgomery has only gotten over 16.5 carries in one game this season. Is there a glitch in the Matrix or does this smell like a trap? The matchup isn't ideal and Matt Nagy has been getting back into 2019 form. The Bears running game hasn't produced and Nagy goes away from it early and often.
While I'm making it seem like all evidence points to the under there is a catch. The Bears running backs have eclipsed the 16.5 carry number in five of their seven games. Cordarrelle Patterson didn't practice Wednesday or Thursday and was limited in Friday's practice with a quad injury. The Bears haven't shown any interest in activating Lamar Miller off the practice squad, and our guess is, the Bears are giving David Montgomery the full workload regardless of Patterson's injury status. It will be close, but it should go over.
Pick: David Montgomery – Over 16.5 Carries
Cole Kmet Anytime TD +1100
We always like to give you a value prop. Who doesn't like betting $20 to win $240? That's what a Cole Kmet anytime TD prop will get you. Bears fans have been pleading for Cole Kmet to be freed on Twitter and this is the week he will be. Cole Kmet has maximized his limited opportunities and has to have Matt Nagy's attention by now. He hasn't done enough for Vegas to catch up and now you can capitalize on it. We've seen him drag defenders after the catch and we've seen him go up and snatch the ball. He should get a red zone target if the Bears get there.
Pick: Cole Kmet – Anytime TD +1100
There it is, folks. Be sure to follow @BearsOnTap on Twitter. Going forward, we will be providing you with our favorite #OnTapBets on props in every Bears game. Best of luck and Bear Down!