We had a great week...until Saturday came along and rained on the parade. Betting is all about streaks. The two picks I gave out on Monday missed by a total of 1.5 points between the two. Here's how the Baylor -6.5 ended:
Then Sacramento State/Idaho over 121 flopped when Sacramento State couldn't make a shot for a full 30 seconds after continuously grabbing offensive rebounds. Now that I got that off of my chest, we persist and bet a new slate of games. Here is what I like for tonight:
Texas A&M (-1) vs. Missouri
Missouri is the higher-ranked team according to KenPom.com, which is why Texas A&M gets such a short number even though both teams have comparable records. I'm not really using advanced metrics here. Missouri is 2-6 in conference and 1-6 on the road this season. I also think A&M gets the advantage when it comes to their coach, Buzz Williams, versus Cuonzo Martin of Missouri. I'd expect A&M to win by 4-5 points, so I see a little bit of an edge here.
Pick: Texas A&M -1
Michigan State/Penn State - Total 144
This is a Big Ten matchup between two formidable teams and Vegas is expecting it to be high scoring. I don't necessarily see that being the case. These teams are #18 and #19, respectively, in adjusted defensive efficiency in the country according to KenPom.com. This is also on Michigan State's home court, where in home Big Ten games the combined total has averaged out to be 135.5 over six games on the season. Give me this under.
Pick: Under 144
DePaul/Xavier - Total 138
I know I use this stereotype often, but Big East games tend to be high-octane and high-scoring affairs. I do not expect this game to be any different. DePaul and Xavier have both gone over 138 in six out of their last eight games. My reasoning is pretty simple here. It seems like a safe bet to go over.
Pick: Over 138
As always, follow me on Twitter @cwsdjt for picks. I post a thread of all of my picks each day in addition to this article. Let's change the momentum!