Heading into this NBA Thursday night, I have two low-risk parlays that should offer surprisingly high odds.
The Mitchell Robinson Double
The Line: Mitchell Robinson 10+ rebounds (+195) and Mitchell Robinson over 7.5 points (+100) Total odds +401
The Chicago Bulls' lack of size has them allowing the sixth-most rebounds per 100 possessions in the NBA this season. New York Knicks' big man Mitchell Robinson comes into tonight's contest averaging 10.5 rebounds. In addition, Robinson averages 8.5 points per game. The Bulls have allowed averages of 11.8 points and 9.8 rebounds to opposing centers in their first four games.
Anytime you can get +400 odds for a player putting up the numbers they average it's a solid bet and considering the positive environment for Robinson's skillset tonight makes this parlay a lock for me.
The Spurs Special
The Line: Jakob Poeltl 10+ rebounds (+140), Dejounte Murray 6+ rebounds (-350), Dejounte Murray 4+ assists (-1250), Derrick White 4+ assists (-300), Jakob Poeltl 10+ points (-150), and San Antonio Spurs +10.5 (-220) Total odds +680
The Dallas Mavericks being six-point favorites in this game is ridiculous. Under new head coach Jason Kidd, the Mavs have been suspect to say the least. So far this season they've nearly lost to the tanking Houston Rockets, barely escaped the Raptors, and got obliterated by the Hawks. As a result, they have a record of 2-1, but it's not a super convincing resume.
In contrast, the Spurs acquired their 1-3 record by blowing out the Magic, nearly beating the Nuggets, staying within 10 of the Bucks, and forcing the Lakers to overtime. This is to say I'm pretty confident the Spurs can stay keep it within 10 tonight.
In addition, the Mavericks lead the NBA in rebounds allowed per 100 with 50.7. Dejounte Murray has eclipsed six rebounds in every game this season, and I don't think the Mavs stop that streak. With DeMar DeRozan no longer on the team, the ball-handling duties are split between Murray and Derrick White. Both players have hit the four assist mark in every game this season.
And finally, the Mavs have allowed the opposing center to get a double-double in every game so far. Jakob Poeltl has scored at least 10 points in all four contests up to this point. And the Austrian big man is averaging 10.8 rebounds a game heading into tonight. I'm confident that the Spurs players can hit their season averages and keep tonight's game close enough to cover the spread.