Welcome back to Kev's Gambling Corner, the weekly article that certainly hasn't taken any weeks off since we started all the way back in September. We certainly wouldn't have taken any weeks off due to a mandoline incident in which a portion of my thumb got sliced off. That would be dumb. What kind of idiot wouldn't use the guard?
The Game: San Francisco 49ers (+1) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
I am expecting an absolute shootout. The 49ers will have no problem running all over the Chiefs, and that's naturally what the Chiefs will focus on. The result: George Kittle, Emmanuel Sanders, and Deebo Samuel being wide open via play-action. Just because Jimmy Garoppolo attempted fewer than ten passes last game doesn't mean he isn't one of the better quarterbacks in the league. He finished the season with a 102 passer rating and a 69% completion percentage. He'll do just fine.
On the other side, not one team has been able to stop the KC offense this postseason once it gets going. They have too many weapons, too much speed, and too much Patrick Mahomes.
I truly don't care who wins this game as long as the over hits. But, this is a gambling article, and I have to give the people what they want. Additionally, if I don't make a pick on the game, I'll jinx my 7,000 prop bets that follow.
Robbie "Good as" Gould with a walk-off field goal to further the conversation about players the Bears passed on.
49ers 42 - Chiefs 41
Pick: San Francisco 49ers +1
The Over: 55
Points are better than no points. Hammer this until Chase calls you and tells you you're being charged for over-drafting your seventh account this month. Then go to Wintrust, take out a third mortgage, put it on the over.
Pick: Over 55
"There aren't many things in life I enjoy more than betting Super Bowl props."
- Gambling Kev
National Anthem (Demi Lovato) Over/Under - 2 Minutes
I've been on the Demi bandwagon since Camp Rock. She has dropped banger after banger. Give Your Heart a Break? Banger. Heart Attack? Banger. Really Don't Care? What do you think? BANGER. I'm taking the over strictly because I want to hear that majestic voice as much as possible. Did you see her hold those notes at the Grammys? This might hit five minutes.
Pick:Over 2 Minutes
Heads or Tails
I'm 100% sure it will be heads.
Over/Under Jersey Number of player to score first TD - 26.5
This might be the only under I take all day. Under 26.5 gives me the following: Tyreek Hill, Damian Williams, Sammy Watkins, Deebo Samuel, Matt Brieda and both quarterbacks. This conveniently leads me to my next prop.
Pick: Jersey Number Under 26.5
First TD - Patrick Mahomes 23 to 1 and Jimmy Garoppolo 40 to 1
Picture this, part 1: Pass interference in the endzone, QB sneak touchdown. Picture this, part 2: Reverse pass back to the QB for a touchdown.
Gambling is easy.
Pick: Both Patrick Mahomes (23-1) and Jimmy Garoppolo (40-1)
First Quarter Over/Under - 10.5
Two touchdowns? Too easy.
Pick: Over 10.5
First Half Over/Under - 26.5
Two touchdowns per quarter? Too easy.
Pick: Over 26.5
Zion Williamson Points (+4.5) vs. Super Bowl First Half total
I love the cross-sport props because they open up a whole new world of betting. Zion has been as beefy as advertised, averaging 18 points per 24 minutes so far this year. I love Zion, but I can't take this. I am so excited for a 28-28 halftime score and one of the most entertaining Super Bowls scoring-wise in the past few years. I hope Zion drops 40 on Sunday, but it still won't be enough.
Pick: Super Bowl First Half Total -4.5
Jennifer Lopez First Song
First song odds are as follows:
- Let’s Get Loud +300
- Jenny From the Block +500
- Live It Up +500
- On the Floor +500
- Dinero +600
- El Anillo +700
- Waiting for Tonight +800
- If You Had My Love +900
- Get Right +1000
- Love Don’t Cost a Thing +1200
After a quick listen to the first 30 seconds of each song, I can say with 100% assurance that Let's Get Loud will be first. Jenny From the Block doesn't start strong enough and Live it Up/On the Floor have Pitbull. Mr. 305 will join the halftime show at some point, but he won't open it.
Pick: Let's Get Loud +300
Total Touchdowns - Over Under 6.5
YOU GET A TOUCHDOWN! YOU GET A TOUCHDOWN! EVERYONE GETS A TOUCHDOWN!
Pick: Over6.5 Touchdowns
Gatorade Color - Red +200, Yellow/Lime +225, Clear +400, Blue +500, Orange +500, None +800
Both teams tout Red as their main color. Taylor Swift's best album is Red. I am taking Red.
Pick: Red +200
Shortest Touchdown of the Game - Over/Under 1.5 yards
I mentioned earlier that there will be pass interference in the endzone resulting in a one-yard QB sneak touchdown. Like I said before, gambling is easy. I also mentioned earlier that I would only have one under. I lied. I apologize. Please accept this guaranteed payout as a penance.
George Kittle Over/Under 70.5 Receiving Yards
I mentioned above that I think Kittle has a huge game based on the use of play-action. KC will focus everything on stopping the run while Kittle and the 49ers take full advantage.
Pick: Over 70.5 yards
The End. (Clickbait king)