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Kev’s Gambling Corner: Week of 12/17/2019

Kev gets back to basics as he breaks down his favorite NFL games of Week 16 for On Tap Sports Net.
Photo: Getty Images

Photo: Getty Images

Maybe the whole "pick every game" thing was harder than I thought. I went 6-9 (don't laugh at that you child) last week. I realize now that I'm not built for 15 games. None of us are. You're giving me one last chance to figure it out and I won't let you down. Two weeks left until the playoffs. Two weeks left for teams to prove if they're a good team (make the playoffs) or a bad team (miss the playoffs). The Bears are a bad team. I'm at peace with it. Have I already decided they're making the playoffs next season due to a third-place schedule?

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A few things to note:

  • I attach the line to the away team unless it’s an over-under. That doesn’t mean I’m picking them.
  • I’m 38-37 on the year: 22-23 in the NFL, and 15-14 in college, and 1-0 in football (of the European variety). I am going to go .500 this season and I find that hilarious. Water always finds its level.
  • I’m back to being aggressively stressed out over the outcome of these picks. I'm going back to the good ole days by listening to My Chemical Romance and Blink-182 mash-ups. It's good really! I’m a hot mess. Enjoy!

Houston Texans -3 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

For your weekly "Jameis Winston is a QB anomaly" stat, his home and away splits are mind-boggling. Away from Raymond James, Winston has a 102 QB rating with 18 TDs and six interceptions. At Raymond James... 72.5 QR rating with 12 TDs and 18 (EIGHTEEN!) interceptions. The Bucs have looked really good over the last four weeks, and here's why: three of the games were on the road where Jameis somehow thrives and the combined record of those four teams is currently 19-36-1. Additionally, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are out. Houston wins the division with a win. They should easily cover this number.

P.S. Jameis needs six more interceptions to hit the 30-30 club.

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Pick: Houston -3

Green Bay Packers +5.5 @ Minnesota Vikings

Against the Vikings in his career, Aaron Rodgers has a 68% completion rate with 43 TDs and six interceptions. Additionally, the Vikings opponents this year (counting the Lions twice to make it support my point even further, obviously) are 47-91-2. I get it, you can only play who they put in front of you. Well, in front of Minnesota this week is Kirk Cousins in a primetime game against a team above .500. Primetime Kirk hasn't shown his face this year, and showing up in week 16 against the division leader would be the most painful time for Vikings fans. I'm excited to see the meltdown. A dumb trend that supports the Packers: The last six games (oldest to most recent) that the Packers have gone to Minnesota as underdogs have gone W-L-W-L-W-L. Even a three-year-old can tell me what comes next in that sequence.

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Pick: Packers +5.5

Chicago Bears Pick of the Week:

Kansas City is 9-5 against the spread this season (second best). Chicago is 4-10 (32nd in the NFL). Water always finds its level. Bears by a billion.

Pick: Bears +6.0

NFL Teaser of the Week - Saturday Edition!

A teaser is a bet that allows you to combine two different games while adjusting the line of each in your favor. This is typically by six points. For example, Chicago -6.5 would move to Chicago -0.5, while Chicago +6.5 would move to Chicago +12.5. A few things to note with a teaser:

  • Both teams must cover for your bet to be successful.
  • You should try to tease across football numbers (3, 4, 6, 7, 10) if possible.

First Team: Buffalo Bills +6.5 to 12.5. This pick is based on two things: First, the Bills were only the third team all year to hold the Ravens under 275 total yards. Additionally, they held the Ravens to under 125 total rushing yards. Second, Tom Brady has no one to throw the ball to. This screams low-scoring. I'll take Bills and over ten points in a heartbeat.

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Second Team: San Francisco 49ers -6.5 to -0.5. Losses like last week against the Falcons happen to good teams every year. The great teams bounce back from them immediately. Maybe they were looking ahead to this game. Maybe they still will be looking ahead to next week vs. Seattle. I'll be putting George Kittle on top of my tree this year after his four touchdowns.

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6 Point Teaser: Bills +12.5 and 49ers -0.5

Goooooooood Luck!

Featured Photo: Getty Images