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Kev’s Gambling Corner: Week of 12/3/2019

Kev welcomes the people back from Thanksgiving with some college football conspiracy theories as well as his NFL and college picks.
Photo: Getty Images

Photo: Getty Images

Hi friends -

It's been a while since we've last spoken. I've missed you dearly. I hope you're doing well. A lot has changed over these last eight days, and I have a lot of emotions swirling through my head. Excitement for jumping on the Bills bandwagon. Regret for taking the Falcons before knowing that Julio Jones was out. Surprise that the Bears defense gave up 20 points to a third-string QB. Disgust in the Falcons and Saints only scoring six points in the first quarter. But most importantly, Love. I met someone. I have found a QB who I can believe. One who's there for me. One that makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside. That quarterback is Mitchell D. Trubisky. Over 300 yards passing, three TDs, QB Rating over 118. I have been asking for Mitch to throw for over 250 yards all year, and he gave me that and more on Thanksgiving. Here's to you, Mitch. Lead us to the promised land. Lead us to the playoffs. 10-6 here we come.

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P.S. You know who else threw for over 300 yards, three TDs, and one INT this week? Tom Brady, aka the greatest quarterback of all time. Is Mitch the next Tom Brady? People are certainly talking about it.

A few things to note:

  • I attach the line to the away team unless it’s an over-under. That doesn’t mean I’m picking them.
  • I’m 31-29 on the year: 15-15 in the NFL, and 15-14 in college, and 1-0 in football (of the European variety).
  • I’m back to being aggressively stressed out over the outcome of these picks. I've been floating around .500 and I know it's either going to flip really bad or really good this week. Throwback to article numero uno: "If you follow me and I lose, you’re an idiot for following me. If you fade me and I hit, you’re an idiot for fading me. That being said, blindly follow me and let’s go win some bets." I’m a hot mess. Enjoy!

San Francisco 49ers+ 2.5 @ New Orleans Saints

This week, we are blessed with so many good NFL games: Chiefs @ Pats, Ravens @ Bills, Seahawks @ Rams. My favorite of the week is 49ers @ Saints. The Saints are a team that has relied on their defense a lot more than usual, and it's been working. The caveat is they haven't played a team that currently has a winning record since week three (Seattle). They've been grinding out wins against subpar NFL teams. Look at last week, the Falcons gave up three turnovers and 9 (NINE!) sacks. They still only lost by one score. The 49ers are coming in furious about losing at Baltimore in a game they believed they had. They aren't losing back-to-back games. San Fran is giving up 3.9 yards per play over their last three games (best in the NFL). Baltimore had Lamar Jackson, who was able to kill the 49ers on the ground when his passing options were suffocated. The Saints have Drew Brees, who clearly isn't the same threat on the ground. The 49ers dropped from the number one seed in the NFC Playoff race to number five with Seattle's win over the Vikings on Monday night. They have a lot to play for. I'd love for this line to jump up to +3, but I think they win so I'm taking +2.5 regardless.

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Pick: 49ers +2.5

Chicago Bears Pick of the Week:

Am I overly confident in the Bears making the playoffs at 10-6? See my Mitch Trubisky rant above. Is this the easiest pick I've ever made? See my Mitch Trubisky rant above. Bears by a billion. Good luck finding a job after this, Garrett. I'm sure Kristin Cavallari will hire you.

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Pick: Bears +3

NFL Teaser of the Week

A teaser is a bet that allows you to combine two different games while adjusting the line of each in your favor. This is typically by six points. For example, Chicago -6.5 would move to Chicago -0.5, while Chicago +6.5 would move to Chicago +12.5. A few things to note with a teaser:

  • Both teams must cover for your bet to be successful.
  • You should try to tease across football numbers (3, 4, 6, 7, 10) if possible.

First Team: Indy +3 to +9. I oftentimes pray for a good Jameis Winston game. This week, I pray for the opposite. Somehow, he didn't throw an interception or a touchdown last week. He'll probably throw five of both this week; definitely five interceptions though. Indianapolis up to +8.5 should be easy especially if they get TY Hilton back.

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Second Team: Cleveland Browns -8.5 to -2.5. They play the Bengals, who finally got their first win of the season. They won't get another one. Baker Mayfield is going to have a nice bounce-back game and this should be a fairly convincing win.

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6 Point Teaser: Jags +9 and Browns -2.5

College Picks

Conspiracy Kev here: I don't have stats for you. I don't have sharp information. I have something much much better. I have a conspiracy theory. The committee would love nothing more than for the SEC to once again get two teams in. This will happen with the following picks.

Oregon +6.5 vs. Utah

The majority of the college football-watching public (including myself) laughs at the PAC-12. They're assumed to be a weak conference with old school blue-bloods that currently are not. Name the Utah starting QB for me. Go ahead. No? Fine. Name the Utah head coach for me. Still nothing? Exactly. This can be blamed on plenty of things, with the main issue being that PAC-12 football is primarily played late on Saturday nights. The public following isn't there, and the playoff ratings will drop dramatically if Utah gets in over Georgia or, say, Oklahoma (foreshadowing). Oregon wins straight up and sends the PAC-12 home yet again.

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Pick: Oregon +6.5

Baylor +9 vs. Oklahoma

Two points here:

  1. If Oklahoma was going to lose to Baylor, it would have been three weeks ago. At home. When they were up 31-10 at halftime. Oklahoma is going to dominate Baylor.
  2. Sticking with the conspiracy concept, Oklahoma has a much bigger following and a better storyline for the college football playoff. I don't think people realize Jalen Hurts was on a team in the last three national championship games. ESPN would salivate at the Jalen Hurts redemption storyline if it came to that. Oklahoma is going to dominate Baylor.
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Pick: Oklahoma -9

Georgia +7 vs. LSU

Here's the last part of the conspiracy. Georgia plays LSU close and proves to the committee that they are, in fact, the fourth-best team in the country (which I actually think they are). This game will essentially be a home game for Georgia fans. LSU fans will probably save their money for the playoff since they'll make the top-four even with a loss at this point. LSU wins on a walk-off field goal, forcing the committee's hand. Top four: Ohio State, LSU, Clemson, Georgia.

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Pick: Georgia +7

The Blindly Follow Me Because You’re a Degenerate Pick:

Cincinnati played at Memphis last week. The over was 58. They scored 54 points. Cincinnati plays at Memphis this week. The over is 58. They won't hurt me again. Points are better than no points.

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Pick: Over 58

Good Luck!

Featured Photo: Getty Images