We're entering Week Seven with a 79-64-5 record betting college football, if you've tailed every pick. We've finished even the last few weeks, no thanks to Texas and Memphis last week, but it only means it's time to get hot again if you ask me. Here's Thursday and Friday's picks.
Navy at Memphis (Navy +11, Under 56)
The total opened at 51.5 points and has risen to as high as 56.5. Last season, these two teams displayed a defensive battle, with Navy winning 10-7. The total last season closed at 63.5 points. Navy won outright as 13.5-point underdogs. The last four games at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium have gone under and Navy has covered the spread in this matchup in four of the last five contests, while Memphis has failed to cover the spread in its last four games in October. I think Navy keeps it close like they have the last three weeks against SMU, UCF, and Houston. Their defense will be key.
Georgia Southern at South Alabama (Georgia Southern +3)
After starting 3-0, the Jaguars have dropped two-straight to Texas State and Louisiana-Lafayette, both by less than three points. The Eagles have dropped four of their last five games. One of those games was to Arkansas, which I was in attendance for and it was never close. That said, they were 25-point underdogs, so that was no surprise. Georgia Southern has won the last five games in this matchup, and three of the five games the Eagles have won by double-digits. Georgia Southern was 3.5-point favorites last season. Perhaps the only reason they're underdogs this year is because of their losing record. South Alabama has failed to cover the spread in 12 of their last 13 games against teams from Georgia. I'm riding with history here.
Clemson at Syracuse (Syracuse +13.5)
You should already know I've been high on Syracuse ATS all season. If you tailed last week, you won yet again as they covered as six-point underdogs and should have won outright if it weren't for a late Wake Forest comeback. On the other end, Clemson has not lived up to their normal standards since Trevor Lawrence suited up for the Tigers, losing two games, one against NC State as 10.5-point favorites. The Tigers are 0-5 ATS this season and 0-6 in their last six games overall. Meanwhile Syracuse is 5-1 ATS and their biggest loss of the season is by 10 points to Rutgers. The Orange will hang tight at home again this week. Perhaps I'll dabble on the Syracuse moneyline (+410), too. Perhaps.
California at No. 9 Oregon (California +13.5)
Oregon has had two weeks to sulk over their loss to Stanford, a game they were 8.5-point favorites. I'm seeing a big bounce back for the 4-1 Ducks, the same Ducks that defeated Ohio State earlier this season. I'm just not sure it'll be by two touchdowns. The Golden Bears are 1-4 this season and have dropped two-straight overall. However, only one of those losses were by more than a touchdown. Oregon is only 1-4 ATS this season and last season they lost as 9.5-point favorites at California. I'm sure the Ducks haven't forgot that, but they're also 0-7 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite and 0-4 ATS as a home favorite and against a team with a losing record. Oregon does have 11 players out for the year which benefits California, who is 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog. They're also 5-1 ATS in their last six road games against a team with a winning record. The trends say to trust the Golden Bears here.
No. 25 San Diego State at San Jose State (San Diego State -9.5, Over 41)
I had to refresh my Bet Rivers app to make sure the line total for this matchup was correct and it is. This may be one of the smallest totals I've seen for college football. Mountain West football after dark must be built a certain way. The last three games between these two teams have gone under, but the totals were much higher than 41 points. Last year it closed at 50.5. San Jose State has played two home games this season, both have gone over. The undefeated Aztecs have scored 30 or more points their last three games. At the end of the day, this total is just too low to bet the under. As for the spread, San Diego State is 4-1 ATS this season while San Jose State is 1-5 ATS. All of the Spartans losses this season have been by double digits. The Aztecs will stay undefeated and roll easily.